Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. </li>
<li>The substantial numbers were followed by yet another <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/03009876.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">share purchase</a> by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. </li>
<li>Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.</li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the <strong>Weld Range Project, </strong>which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.</li>
<li>Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> to a 10-12 million ton production profile. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.
Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.</li>
<li>Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).</li>
<li>As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.
Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. 


Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF

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<li>We are now set for a <a href="https://www.mining.com/explaining-the-iron-ore-grade-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts</a>, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  </li>
<li>Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. </li>
<li>We continue to advocate strongly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. Read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a> for a detailed outline of our thesis. </li>
</ul>


We are now set for a decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  
Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. 
We continue to advocate strongly for Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again for a detailed outline of our thesis. 


Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-pullback-from-102-usd-ton-to-95-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:196969" rel="noopener">Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton</a>, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price. </li>
<li>With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>(Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-tripling-of-production-achieved-1-2x-price-ocf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:197917" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF</a> ).</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price. 
With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton. 
Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).


Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)