Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has now rallied 110% ytd. Despite its recent rally, it still trades at 6.3x PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. </li>
<li>The company churned out 43.9 mn AUD (176 mn annualized ~2.1x OCF) of operating cash flow in Q1 FY26, even though its third mine was still not fully ramped up.  </li>
<li>We see quarterly cashflows in the vicinity of 55-58 mn AUD (220-230 mn AUD annually or 1.6x OCF) with its third mine Beebyn W11 fully ramped up. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has now rallied 110% ytd. Despite its recent rally, it still trades at 6.3x PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. 
The company churned out 43.9 mn AUD (176 mn annualized ~2.1x OCF) of operating cash flow in Q1 FY26, even though its third mine was still not fully ramped up.  
We see quarterly cashflows in the vicinity of 55-58 mn AUD (220-230 mn AUD annually or 1.6x OCF) with its third mine Beebyn W11 fully ramped up. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Still A Double At Least Despite >100% Rally

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<li>
 Record June quarter: 1,299k wmt shipped, up 33% sequentially, driving FY26 shipments of 4.4Mt, up 83% and inside guidance of 4.2Mt to 4.8Mt.</li>
<li>
Unit economics deteriorated: Implied margin fell to A$17/t from A$41.5/t as freight rose to A$31.7/dmt and C1 costs to A$79.9/wmt.</li>
<li>
 Valuation undemanding: FY26e P/E 9.2x, EV/EBITDA 2.1x, P/B 1.1x, 3.3% yield, on FY26 operating cash flow of A$135.9m for FY26 (60% OCF yield). </li>
</ul>



 Record June quarter: 1,299k wmt shipped, up 33% sequentially, driving FY26 shipments of 4.4Mt, up 83% and inside guidance of 4.2Mt to 4.8Mt.

Unit economics deteriorated: Implied margin fell to A$17/t from A$41.5/t as freight rose to A$31.7/dmt and C1 costs to A$79.9/wmt.

 Valuation undemanding: FY26e P/E 9.2x, EV/EBITDA 2.1x, P/B 1.1x, 3.3% yield, on FY26 operating cash flow of A$135.9m for FY26 (60% OCF yield). 


Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU) Q4 FY26 Concall Update: Record Volumes, Sharp Margin Compression

<ul>
<li>Bulk shipping rates, widely expected to decline after the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, once again rose 20% for the week as tensions flared between Iran and the US. </li>
<li>Crude oil prices rose, and diesel derivative prices started to inch upwards again, with Singapore gasoil prices up 9% on the week.</li>
<li>The cost push on iron ore prices up (1.8% w-o-w) will not be enough to offset the recent cost price increases, leading to a margin squeeze for iron ore players.</li>
</ul>


Bulk shipping rates, widely expected to decline after the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, once again rose 20% for the week as tensions flared between Iran and the US. 
Crude oil prices rose, and diesel derivative prices started to inch upwards again, with Singapore gasoil prices up 9% on the week.
The cost push on iron ore prices up (1.8% w-o-w) will not be enough to offset the recent cost price increases, leading to a margin squeeze for iron ore players.


Iron Ore: Too Much Volatility On The Cost Drivers

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation</li>
<li>Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset</li>
<li>Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation
Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

<ul>
<li>The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.</li>
<li>Investigations into the<a href="https://www.mining.com/fatal-accident-forces-winning-to-halt-iron-ore-mine-at-simandou/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> accident at Simandou</a> are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a>. </li>
</ul>


The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 


On The BHP-China Impasse: Iron Ore Will Continue To Be Over 100 USD/Ton

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)