Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs has upgraded its iron ore price forecast, highlighting rising near-term demand from China's steel sector during the spring construction season and weather-related disruptions at Australian ports.</li>
<li>However, Goldman is bearish on iron ore for the second half (a consensus view), predicting a decline in China's steel demand and the emergence of lower-cost supply.</li>
<li>We continue to pound the table on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. Read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2-fy25-update-close-to-tripling-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2 FY25 Update: Close to Tripling Production</a>.</li>
</ul>


Goldman Sachs has upgraded its iron ore price forecast, highlighting rising near-term demand from China's steel sector during the spring construction season and weather-related disruptions at Australian ports.
However, Goldman is bearish on iron ore for the second half (a consensus view), predicting a decline in China's steel demand and the emergence of lower-cost supply.
We continue to pound the table on Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read "Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2 FY25 Update: Close to Tripling Production.


Iron Ore Tracker (10-Feb-2025): Rangebound / Pounding the Table On Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation</li>
<li>Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset</li>
<li>Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation
Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

<ul>
<li>Iron ore bounced back 7.7% last week to finish at 104 USD/ton. The short-term bullishness was due to temporary port closures for Hedland and Dampier due to cyclone warnings. </li>
<li>China TSF exceeded expectations for December, coming in at 2.85 trillion RMB, up 47% year over year (compared to street expectations of 2.15 trillion RMB). </li>
<li>We like the small-cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU). </a>Read our research <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-deep-value-35-of-mkt-cap-in-cash-2-5x-pe-0-3-ev-ebitda-on-ramp-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:171736" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, &gt;35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore bounced back 7.7% last week to finish at 104 USD/ton. The short-term bullishness was due to temporary port closures for Hedland and Dampier due to cyclone warnings. 
China TSF exceeded expectations for December, coming in at 2.85 trillion RMB, up 47% year over year (compared to street expectations of 2.15 trillion RMB). 
We like the small-cap Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read our research Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, &gt;35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up. 


Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-small-cap-iron-ore-miner-with-great-upside" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. </a>The flagship mine added <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/02890696.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life</a>. </li>
<li>At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  </li>
<li>The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initiation, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. The flagship mine added another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life. 
At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  
The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.</li>
<li>Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> to a 10-12 million ton production profile. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.
Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (10-Feb-2025): Rangebound / Pounding the Table On Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron ore received a boost as analysts upgraded their near-term forecasts, anticipating improved demand from China. We strongly recommend employing...

Sameer Taneja

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

The interviewee led a successful restructuring of Metals X, selling off distressed assets and increasing market cap significantly.

Money of Mine

Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices

Iron ore supply has been temporarily curtailed by inclement weather in Australia and bounced back to >100 USD/ton. January is an important month as...

Sameer Taneja