Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New weekly balance sheets for US large banks shows C&amp;I loan growth turning negative. De-risking continues with cash balances up 15.1% YoY, the fourth week of double digit growth. </li>
<li>Total loan growth is nearly negative with the most recent week's release showing further slowing to 1.11% YoY in week to18 October. </li>
<li>With all of this, US large banks are accelerating their more expensive jumbo time deposits, with growth now at 115% YoY and adding USD26bn in the week. </li>
</ul>


New weekly balance sheets for US large banks shows C&amp;I loan growth turning negative. De-risking continues with cash balances up 15.1% YoY, the fourth week of double digit growth. 
Total loan growth is nearly negative with the most recent week's release showing further slowing to 1.11% YoY in week to18 October. 
With all of this, US large banks are accelerating their more expensive jumbo time deposits, with growth now at 115% YoY and adding USD26bn in the week. 


US Banks - New Weekly Balance Sheets: C&I Loan Growth Turns Negative | Cash +15% | All Loans +1%

<ul>
<li>Weekly mortgage loan applications index in the US is declining rapidly as is the weekly mortgage loan volume index. This gives a good forward view of growth.</li>
<li>Mortgage loans remain one of the most important segments for US banks at 23% of loans in the most recent week, so their decelerating growth is meaningful.</li>
<li>Given the high level of 30-year mortgage rates - not moving lower fast - decelerating mortgage loan growth should continue, and is likely to turn negative soon.</li>
</ul>


Weekly mortgage loan applications index in the US is declining rapidly as is the weekly mortgage loan volume index. This gives a good forward view of growth.
Mortgage loans remain one of the most important segments for US banks at 23% of loans in the most recent week, so their decelerating growth is meaningful.
Given the high level of 30-year mortgage rates - not moving lower fast - decelerating mortgage loan growth should continue, and is likely to turn negative soon.


US Banks - Mtg Loan Applications Index -15% from July | Mtg Loans 23% of Total | Growth Can Turn -Ve

<ul>
<li>US Federal Reserve Bank balance sheets are released weekly and more current than commercial banks. Latest Fed B/S is for 4 October, shows -USD47bn WoW in loans, securities, repos.</li>
<li>Liquidity conditions in the US banking system are becoming tighter faster, with the most recent week showing loans, securities, repos at -9.4% YoY vs -8.3% four weeks ago.</li>
<li>With tighter liquidity we should expect less loan growth, but also more difficult conditions for cash-strapped companies, prompting more defaults, and higher credit costs at banks.</li>
</ul>


US Federal Reserve Bank balance sheets are released weekly and more current than commercial banks. Latest Fed B/S is for 4 October, shows -USD47bn WoW in loans, securities, repos.
Liquidity conditions in the US banking system are becoming tighter faster, with the most recent week showing loans, securities, repos at -9.4% YoY vs -8.3% four weeks ago.
With tighter liquidity we should expect less loan growth, but also more difficult conditions for cash-strapped companies, prompting more defaults, and higher credit costs at banks.


US - Fed Liquidity Moves USD147bn Lower In Past 3 Weeks, Pace Is Accelerating

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. </li>
<li>Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. </li>
<li>Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. </li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. 
Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. 
Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. 


US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

<ul>
<li>Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth</li>
<li>Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta</li>
<li>Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks' higher CRE lending</li>
</ul>


Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth
Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta
Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks' higher CRE lending


US Banks - New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD's +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

United States

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

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Fifth Third Ban (FITB US)

US Banks - New Weekly Balance Sheets: C&I Loan Growth Turns Negative | Cash +15% | All Loans +1%

New weekly balance sheet data gives near real-time view. C&I loans just turned negative. Cash is growing fast, total loans nearly negative. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Mtg Loan Applications Index -15% from July | Mtg Loans 23% of Total | Growth Can Turn -Ve

HFD in the US shows worsening weekly data for mortgage loan applications and for mortgage loan volume. Growth is decelerating fast and it can turn...

Daniel Tabbush

US - Fed Liquidity Moves USD147bn Lower In Past 3 Weeks, Pace Is Accelerating

Fed data shows USD147bn lower liquidity in just the past 3 weeks, and the pace is accelerating. There are negative implications for bank loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

New balance sheet data US big banks: weaker loan growth, more negative for CRE, higher big term deposits. Loan loss reserves continue to rise fast....

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD's +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

New weekly balance sheets: large banks at -0.2% CRE loan growth, first time negative this year; small banks at 11% CRE loan growth. Large banks'...

Daniel Tabbush

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