Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

<ul>
<li>The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk</li>
<li>Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments</li>
<li>Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall</li>
</ul>


The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk
Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments
Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall


US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December</li>
<li>Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November</li>
<li>Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December
Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November
Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income


US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

<ul>
<li>US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD</li>
<li>This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth</li>
<li>There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks</li>
</ul>


US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD
This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth
There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks


US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.</li><li>MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.</li><li>At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.</li></ul>

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

United States

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

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Fifth Third Ban (FITB US)

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Fires in Los Angeles can result in impairments, loan restructurings, other second order effects for banks (and insurance companies), like credit...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Weekly HFD data for large US banks is highly positive: loans accelerating, not CRE loans, with less growth in high cost jumbo deposits, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

US large banks show loans accelerating (but not riskier CRE loans) and with higher cost Jumbo time deposit growth now turning negative in new...

Daniel Tabbush

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31. MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days. At the other end,...

ORTEX Market Intel

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52-week Range

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