US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.</li>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a> following price rallies.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verallia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36586:1" rel="noopener">Verallia (VRLA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-popolare-di-sondrio-scar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21166:1" rel="noopener">Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)</a> following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.</li>
</ul>



Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO) is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.
The main forecasted additions are Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) and Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) following price rallies.
The main forecasted deletions are Verallia (VRLA FP) and Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM) following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.


STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Flatex reported H120 earnings of €22.4m (+162% y-o-y) and ROE of 23.1%. Volatile markets helped trade executions jump 127% y-o-y to €13.1m. Client numbers continue to grow strongly, up 35% y-o-y. On 21 July 2020, the Dutch central bank gave Flatex the green light to acquire DEGIRO, a leading Dutch broker. The acquisition (agreed in December 2019) is transformational, adding greater scale and breadth of products to make Flatex Europe’s largest retail online broker, present in 18 countries. If we include DEGIRO, the combined number of transactions in H120 would have been 37.6m and the number of customers almost triples to 1.1 million. The shares have reacted well to the news, but still trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT despite consensus forecasts of above average growth.

Flatex reported H120 earnings of €22.4m (+162% y-o-y) and ROE of 23.1%. Volatile markets helped trade executions jump 127% y-o-y to €13.1m. Client numbers continue to grow strongly, up 35% y-o-y. On 21 July 2020, the Dutch central bank gave Flatex the green light to acquire DEGIRO, a leading Dutch broker. The acquisition (agreed in December 2019) is transformational, adding greater scale and breadth of products to make Flatex Europe’s largest retail online broker, present in 18 countries. If we include DEGIRO, the combined number of transactions in H120 would have been 37.6m and the number of customers almost triples to 1.1 million. The shares have reacted well to the news, but still trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT despite consensus forecasts of above average growth.

Flatex reported FY19 of earnings €14.9m (-15% y-o-y) and a ROE of 8.6%. Lower market volatility affected the results, as did the costs of expansion into the Dutch market before the decision to acquire 100% of DEGIRO in December 2019 for €60m cash plus €190m in shares. The EBITDA margin was 28.5%, down 16.8% y-o-y. The friendly acquisition of DEGIRO is transformational, with greater scale and breath of products. Management has identified €30m in annual synergies. The deal will make Flatex Europe’s largest retail online broker, present in 18 countries, although it is still awaiting regulatory approval. Although the share price has almost doubled since the announcement of the DEGIRO acquisition, the shares trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT despite consensus forecasts of above-average growth.

Flatex reported FY19 of earnings €14.9m (-15% y-o-y) and a ROE of 8.6%. Lower market volatility affected the results, as did the costs of expansion into the Dutch market before the decision to acquire 100% of DEGIRO in December 2019 for €60m cash plus €190m in shares. The EBITDA margin was 28.5%, down 16.8% y-o-y. The friendly acquisition of DEGIRO is transformational, with greater scale and breath of products. Management has identified €30m in annual synergies. The deal will make Flatex Europe’s largest retail online broker, present in 18 countries, although it is still awaiting regulatory approval. Although the share price has almost doubled since the announcement of the DEGIRO acquisition, the shares trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT despite consensus forecasts of above-average growth.


Flatex - Waiting for the regulatory go-ahead

Flatex (after its online brokerage brand; previously FinTech) reported a 10% y-o-y increase in revenue in H119. Earnings fell 9% y-o-y to €8.6m (ROE 10.8%) but were +5% y-o-y after adjusting for securities write downs. The successful roll-out of online brokerage to the Netherlands contributed to management raising its FY19 EBITDA margin guidance from 29% to 31% in August. Flatex expects to expand into Spain in Q419. Based on consensus, shares trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT.

Flatex (after its online brokerage brand; previously FinTech) reported a 10% y-o-y increase in revenue in H119. Earnings fell 9% y-o-y to €8.6m (ROE 10.8%) but were +5% y-o-y after adjusting for securities write downs. The successful roll-out of online brokerage to the Netherlands contributed to management raising its FY19 EBITDA margin guidance from 29% to 31% in August. Flatex expects to expand into Spain in Q419. Based on consensus, shares trade at a discount to peers on both P/E and EV/EBIT.

Germany

FinTech Group AG is a financial technology company, specializing in securities transactions as well as software, payment and IT-solutions. The Company operates an online retail banking and brokerage business under its own brands and white label banking for third parties, as well as mobile payment software.

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FinTech Group AG (FTK GY)

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Flatex - Grateful for volatility

Flatex reported H120 earnings of €22.4m (+162% y-o-y) and ROE of 23.1%. Volatile markets helped trade executions jump 127% y-o-y to €13.1m. Client...

Edison Investment Research

Flatex - Waiting for the regulatory go-ahead

Flatex reported FY19 of earnings €14.9m (-15% y-o-y) and a ROE of 8.6%. Lower market volatility affected the results, as did the costs of expansion...

Edison Investment Research

Flatex - Dutch delight

Flatex (after its online brokerage brand; previously FinTech) reported a 10% y-o-y increase in revenue in H119. Earnings fell 9% y-o-y to €8.6m...

Edison Investment Research

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