Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. </li>
<li>We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ).</li>
</ul>


The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).


Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

<ul>
<li>China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.</li>
<li>The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.</li>
<li>We provide updates on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN</a> )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. </li>
</ul>


China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.
The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.
We provide updates on Lundin Mining (LUN CN )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. 


Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

<ul>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.</li>
<li>Positive Q1 FY25 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>, and <a target="_blank">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.</li>
</ul>


China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.


Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> reported their Q1 results, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> reported their first quarter updates. </li>
<li>Due to the base effect, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) reported their Q1 results, and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) reported their first quarter updates. 
Due to the base effect, Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) first-quarter production numbers looked strong, with copper/gold production coming in at 20%/29% YoY.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) production was down by 2% YoY, but was expected as the company has lower production from the Sentinel mine.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments</li><li>Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as well</li><li>Boss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just production</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investmentsLaramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as wellBoss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just productionThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

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First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

This insight covers the KPIs we track in the short term, confirming our constructive view on copper. We also look at our top equity picks in the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

China's copper and concentrate imports hit a record 2.924 million tons, up 24.4% YoY, beating expectations despite trade war concerns, signaling...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

We maintain a bullish stance on copper, as China's March TSF data suggests a push for more stimulus. Additionally, rising COMEX spreads and the...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) And First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Q1 Updates

We provide updates from the Q1 operational update of Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Q1 FY25 results of First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), both of which are...

Sameer Taneja

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium...

Money of Mine

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