Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:<ul><li>Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6</li><li>Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8</li></ul>

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook supported by a cast of multi-year base patterns (esp. in Europe and Japan), weakness in defensive sectors, and strength in cyclicals. In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:Buy energy, miners. Discussed above... see pages 3-6Autos are strengthening. Developed market auto stocks, a lagging group for the past three years, present an opportunity. Names like BMW (BMW-DE), Ford (F), Peugeot (UG-FR), and Toyota (TM) are breaking out/bullishly inflecting... see pages 7-8

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bhp-abandons-anglo-american-approach-says-own-growth-plan-compelling-2025-11-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP-Anglo merger </a>was followed by the successful <a href="https://www.angloamerican.com/investors/anglo-american-teck-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anglo-Teck</a> merger and, more recently, the revived <a href="https://www.afr.com/rich-list/ivan-glasenberg-s-wealth-tops-21b-on-rio-glencore-mega-merger-talks-20260114-p5ntvp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio-Glencore merger</a> talks.</li>
<li>Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.</li>
<li>Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.</li>
</ul>


Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed BHP-Anglo merger was followed by the successful Anglo-Teck merger and, more recently, the revived Rio-Glencore merger talks.
Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.
Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.


Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

<ul>
<li>In our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-mine-by-mine-supply-challenges-for-everyone-update-as-copper-is-set-to-break-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.</a>The latest copper supply casualty is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capstone-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25359:1" rel="noopener">Capstone Copper (CS CN)</a> with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-02/capstone-chile-miners-strike-as-record-copper-lifts-expectations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile</a>.</li>
<li>Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaks-12k-usd-ton-move-to-13k-usd-ton-by-early-next-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215539" rel="noopener">Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year</a> </li>
<li>Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.</li>
</ul>


In our prior insight, we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.The latest copper supply casualty is Capstone Copper (CS CN) with a strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile.
Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year 
Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.


Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

<ul>
<li>A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.</li>
<li>The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. </li>
<li>We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. </li>
</ul>


A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.
The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. 
We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. 


Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Inflation Trade Is Gathering Steam -- Buy Energy, Miners, Autos; Stay Overweight EM

All regions—both geographic and economic—share a common through-line: bullish technicals. And we expect this trend to continue, an outlook...

Vermilion Research

Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

The pursuit of critical minerals by corporations and countries (China, USA) is driving animal spirits in the copper market. We highlight our top...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine (CS CN) has curtailed roughly 70% of output, adding to supply risk as copper prices continue to trend...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

We end the year with copper breaking 12k USD/ton. Our call for early next year is copper breaching 13k USD/ton, due to a confluence of factors,...

Sameer Taneja

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