Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Funding squeeze evident in HK's HIBOR market and reported in Australia too</li>
<li>Even where not visible, this must be expected globally, as banks reign in risk</li>
<li>MQG has low levels of deposits and high levels of securities</li>
</ul>


Funding squeeze evident in HK's HIBOR market and reported in Australia too
Even where not visible, this must be expected globally, as banks reign in risk
MQG has low levels of deposits and high levels of securities


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

<ul>
<li>The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk</li>
<li>Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments</li>
<li>Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall</li>
</ul>


The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk
Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments
Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall


US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Wells Fargo Strengthens Investment Bank with JPMorgan Veteran Fernando Rivas</li>
<li>ConocoPhillips to Acquire Marathon Oil in $ 17 Billion Deal</li>
<li>Biden Administration Expands Clean Energy Tax Credits Beyond Wind and Solar</li>
</ul>


Wells Fargo Strengthens Investment Bank with JPMorgan Veteran Fernando Rivas
ConocoPhillips to Acquire Marathon Oil in $ 17 Billion Deal
Biden Administration Expands Clean Energy Tax Credits Beyond Wind and Solar


#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

United States

First Republic Bank and its subsidiaries provide private banking, private business banking and private wealth management in urban, coastal markets in the U.S. First Republic delivers relationship-based service by providing a single point of contact for all of its services.

Price Gauge
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First Republic Bank (FRC US)

MQG - Funding Squeeze?

Funding squeeze is evident in Hong Kong, and reports suggest the same in Australia, with other markets likely. Banks which rely more on non-deposit...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Fires in Los Angeles can result in impairments, loan restructurings, other second order effects for banks (and insurance companies), like credit...

Daniel Tabbush

#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.

Nimish Maheshwari

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MQG - Funding Squeeze?

Funding squeeze is evident in Hong Kong, and reports suggest the same in Australia, with other markets likely. Banks which rely more on non-deposit...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

Fires in Los Angeles can result in impairments, loan restructurings, other second order effects for banks (and insurance companies), like credit...

Daniel Tabbush

#7Business Buzz: WellsFargo Expands Investment Arm, ConocoPhillips $17 Bn Deal, VinFast US Plant

​Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.

Nimish Maheshwari

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Wells Fargo hires JPMorgan veteran, ConocoPhillips acquires Marathon Oil for $17 bn, Biden expands clean energy tax credits.

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...