Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.   </li>
<li>Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans. </li>
<li>The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon. </li>
</ul>


The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.   
Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans. 
The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p> The benchmark palm oil contract on the Malaysia Bursa closed at a record high of RM4,524/mt at the mid-day close the 12 May. The previous high was in March 2008. That gain in palm oil has moved in tandem with a rally in the vegetable oil complex, which has eked out the sharpest increase of all the agricultural commodities in the past year.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/666/original/image_83464541291621222454246.png?1621222454" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206666"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QD/metadata" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAO</a>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Components of the vegetable oils price index: soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.</div>
<p>The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth in the key exporting countries (Malaysia and Indonesia), hampered by labour shortages, in conjunction with strong global import purchases.</p>
<p>Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated. </p>
<p>Is this rally sustainable and why are markets not moving more in sync?  Or is ESG becoming a more pressing issue? </p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/657/original/image?1621220074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206657"></figure>

 The benchmark palm oil contract on the Malaysia Bursa closed at a record high of RM4,524/mt at the mid-day close the 12 May. The previous high was in March 2008. That gain in palm oil has moved in tandem with a rally in the vegetable oil complex, which has eked out the sharpest increase of all the agricultural commodities in the past year.

Source: FAO

Components of the vegetable oils price index: soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.
The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth in the key exporting countries (Malaysia and Indonesia), hampered by labour shortages, in conjunction with strong global import purchases.
Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated. 
Is this rally sustainable and why are markets not moving more in sync?  Or is ESG becoming a more pressing issue? 
More below the fold. 


Powering Palm Oil: Record Prices Amid Vegetable Oil Complex Rally

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), RHB Invest

RHB Invest

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

RHB Investment Bank is one of the leading capital market players in Malaysia. Supported by an award-winning research team of experienced product specialists, RHB Group Investment Banking offers a full range of investment banking products and services covering primary markets, such as advisory (corporate & debt restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, takeovers), fundraising via both equity and debt instruments, and secondary markets including securities trading for both institutional and retail clients. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Downgrade First Resources to SELL from Neutral, target price drops to S$1.20 from S$1.60, 13% downside.</li><li>First Resources’s 1Q23 results disappointed. Net profit plunged 74% y-o-y to US$19.3m.</li><li>This came in well below expectations, making up 8-9% of our and Street FY23F earnings, largely due to lower ASPs achieved as well as a lower FFB output.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Downgrade First Resources to SELL from Neutral, target price drops to S$1.20 from S$1.60, 13% downside.First Resources’s 1Q23 results disappointed. Net profit plunged 74% y-o-y to US$19.3m.This came in well below expectations, making up 8-9% of our and Street FY23F earnings, largely due to lower ASPs achieved as well as a lower FFB output.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

First Resources - Lower ASPs Dampen 1Q23 Numbers; Downgrade To SELL

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.</li>
<li>Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.</li>
<li>Potential passive buying could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> outperforming peers in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.


Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Singapore

First Resources Limited produces crude palm oil. The Company is an upstream operator with primary business activities in the cultivation and harvesting of oil palms, and the processing of fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil for local and export sales. The Company is also constructing a biodiesel plant located in Dumai, Riau province, close to the Dumai port.

First Resources (FR SP)

Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

The El Niño is back and is likely to evolve into a severe event, resulting in significant oil palm yield compression. Plantations are cheap, even...

Niklas Olausson

Powering Palm Oil: Record Prices Amid Vegetable Oil Complex Rally

The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth, in conjunction with strong global...

David Blennerhassett

First Resources - Lower ASPs Dampen 1Q23 Numbers; Downgrade To SELL

Downgrade First Resources to SELL from Neutral, target price drops to S$1.20 from S$1.60, 13% downside. First Resources’s 1Q23 results disappointed.

RHB Invest

Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.

Arun George

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Golden Agri-Resources has trended lower over the last year and multiples have shrunk and the stock trades cheaper than peers. Passive buying could...

Brian Freitas