New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant items to NZ$513m–NZ$723m.</li><li>On an underlying basis, FBU is expecting FY25 EBIT of NZ$370m–NZ$375m.</li><li>We expect outlook commentary for FY26 to be relatively muted, as FBU noted at its June investor day that it expects no material pickup in activity until FY27.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant items to NZ$513m–NZ$723m.On an underlying basis, FBU is expecting FY25 EBIT of NZ$370m–NZ$375m.We expect outlook commentary for FY26 to be relatively muted, as FBU noted at its June investor day that it expects no material pickup in activity until FY27.

Fletcher Building FY25 Preview—Planning Stages

<ul><li>May consents ticked up but remain consistent with construction activity, with residential consents staying within the 30k–35k range for the past two years.</li><li>Non-residential consents lifted by 15.2% year-on-year, driven by the accommodation, education, and industrial sectors, with an optimistic tone due to more government activity.</li><li>Fletcher Building's market update highlights subdued activity with no material pick-up expected until FY27, despite some support from lower interest rates and government announcements.</li></ul>

May consents ticked up but remain consistent with construction activity, with residential consents staying within the 30k–35k range for the past two years.Non-residential consents lifted by 15.2% year-on-year, driven by the accommodation, education, and industrial sectors, with an optimistic tone due to more government activity.Fletcher Building's market update highlights subdued activity with no material pick-up expected until FY27, despite some support from lower interest rates and government announcements.

Building Sector NZ Consents—Stuck on a Level

<ul><li>The FY25 investor day update emphasized simplification, decentralization, and reduced overheads, with a focus on financial discipline and portfolio rationalization.</li><li>Dividends will not resume until net debt halves, and there is no confidence in a near-term NZ recovery, with significant items continuing to impact financials.</li><li>ROIC improvement is a priority, though challenges remain, including the need for operational and capital efficiency improvements and the impact of the dilutive NZ$360m OSB plant.</li></ul>

The FY25 investor day update emphasized simplification, decentralization, and reduced overheads, with a focus on financial discipline and portfolio rationalization.Dividends will not resume until net debt halves, and there is no confidence in a near-term NZ recovery, with significant items continuing to impact financials.ROIC improvement is a priority, though challenges remain, including the need for operational and capital efficiency improvements and the impact of the dilutive NZ$360m OSB plant.

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) is set to update the market on its strategic review, which has shifted towards an operating review to avoid selling assets at low multiples during depressed earnings cycles.</li><li>The company plans to focus on operational improvements, including a more decentralized operating model, closure of loss-making businesses, and cost reductions, to enhance shareholder returns.</li><li>Capital and balance sheet management remains a priority, with no immediate plans to sell any business segments despite unsolicited inquiries for its Construction business.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) is set to update the market on its strategic review, which has shifted towards an operating review to avoid selling assets at low multiples during depressed earnings cycles.The company plans to focus on operational improvements, including a more decentralized operating model, closure of loss-making businesses, and cost reductions, to enhance shareholder returns.Capital and balance sheet management remains a priority, with no immediate plans to sell any business segments despite unsolicited inquiries for its Construction business.

<ul><li>Residential consents decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges for the sector.</li><li>Non-residential consents show a mixed performance with some positive signs in office and education sectors, though overall trends remain downward.</li><li>Fletcher Building reports slow sales in residential areas and reduced commercial spending, with no significant improvement expected in market conditions until 2026.</li></ul>

Residential consents decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges for the sector.Non-residential consents show a mixed performance with some positive signs in office and education sectors, though overall trends remain downward.Fletcher Building reports slow sales in residential areas and reduced commercial spending, with no significant improvement expected in market conditions until 2026.

Building Sector NZ Consents—Bouncing Along the Bottom

Australia

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

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Fletcher Building (FBU AU)

Fletcher Building FY25 Preview—Planning Stages

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector NZ Consents—Stuck on a Level

May consents ticked up but remain consistent with construction activity, with residential consents staying within the 30k–35k range for the past...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - Under Construction

The FY25 investor day update emphasized simplification, decentralization, and reduced overheads, with a focus on financial discipline and portfolio...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - Investor Day V.2025

Fletcher Building (FBU) is set to update the market on its strategic review, which has shifted towards an operating review to avoid selling assets...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector NZ Consents—Bouncing Along the Bottom

Residential consents decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges for the sector.

Forsyth Barr

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