Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that would benefit (or be adversely affected) by them, namely: 1) an ageing society; 2) higher concentration of wealth; 3) driverless cars for ride hailing; 4) increasing fintech adoption by incumbents; and 5) a decline in both labor cost and commodity prices.We may have discussed most of these themes before, though we've never put them in one place. As they say in investing, gotta watch where the puck is going, not where it is.

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that would benefit (or be adversely affected) by them, namely: 1) an ageing society; 2) higher concentration of wealth; 3) driverless cars for ride hailing; 4) increasing fintech adoption by incumbents; and 5) a decline in both labor cost and commodity prices.We may have discussed most of these themes before, though we've never put them in one place. As they say in investing, gotta watch where the puck is going, not where it is.

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy &amp; Business Development of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/214" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1">Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB)</a>, and we found it pretty interesting. Basically, his view is that fintech has been around since the 50s, and in his view, we are on the third wave...There's something with the number three. I recall someone else (maybe Microsoft CEO Nadella) saying we are on the third Industrial or Digital Revolution. Well, let's just indulge the…

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy &amp; Business Development of Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB), and we found it pretty interesting. Basically, his view is that fintech has been around since the 50s, and in his view, we are on the third wave...There's something with the number three. I recall someone else (maybe Microsoft CEO Nadella) saying we are on the third Industrial or Digital Revolution. Well, let's just indulge the…

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

We recently followed up with three companies we met in the past, and that's what this cryptic title means. Glass = TOG (Thai Optical Glass), Green = GGC (A green energy company), and Kiosk (FSMART). Forth's share price has done poorly despite repeatedly delivering strong results. One of the reason may be that their core operations in kiosks, represented by FSMART, is seen as a competitor of the banks, who are now waiving digital fees ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-7-the-end-of-digital-banking-fees" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19266">Snippets #7: The End of Digital Banking Fees</a>). According to…

We recently followed up with three companies we met in the past, and that's what this cryptic title means. Glass = TOG (Thai Optical Glass), Green = GGC (A green energy company), and Kiosk (FSMART). Forth's share price has done poorly despite repeatedly delivering strong results. One of the reason may be that their core operations in kiosks, represented by FSMART, is seen as a competitor of the banks, who are now waiving digital fees ( Snippets #7: The End of Digital Banking Fees). According to…

Three of a Kind: The Glass Is Greener on the Other Kiosk

PTT Exploration & Production / Equity Bottom-Up

Arguably, no stock comes closer to mimicking oil prices in Thailand than PTTEP and its parent company PTT, aka largest stock in Thailand. Brent oil prices dropped from 2017 year-end levels of US$70/bbl to a low of US$62/bbl this month before rebounding to current level of US$65/bbl. In fact, it seems that apart from oil stocks and CP All, none of the big cap stocks seem to be doing well in Thailand these days. CP All's continued rise seems to be related to news flow in the banking sector <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-xii-how-much-upside-can-cp-all-squeeze-from-a-new-banking-venture" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17835">Reality</a>…

Arguably, no stock comes closer to mimicking oil prices in Thailand than PTTEP and its parent company PTT, aka largest stock in Thailand. Brent oil prices dropped from 2017 year-end levels of US$70/bbl to a low of US$62/bbl this month before rebounding to current level of US$65/bbl. In fact, it seems that apart from oil stocks and CP All, none of the big cap stocks seem to be doing well in Thailand these days. CP All's continued rise seems to be related to news flow in the banking sector Reality…

Contrasting Stocks in the Portfolio. Today, we met up with fruit juice company MALEE and kiosk king Forth (or rather their subsidiary ForthSmart), and heck the picture couldn't have differed more yo. It was nevertheless useful, since we hold some shares in both companies, so we feel their pain. On one hand, MALEE, which is controlled by the 46% controlled by the Jeungrungreungkit family of Thai Summit Group ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-glimpse-into-thai-summit-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11296">A Glimpse into Thai Summit Group</a>). MALEE admittedly is struggling badly, and management…

Contrasting Stocks in the Portfolio. Today, we met up with fruit juice company MALEE and kiosk king Forth (or rather their subsidiary ForthSmart), and heck the picture couldn't have differed more yo. It was nevertheless useful, since we hold some shares in both companies, so we feel their pain. On one hand, MALEE, which is controlled by the 46% controlled by the Jeungrungreungkit family of Thai Summit Group ( A Glimpse into Thai Summit Group). MALEE admittedly is struggling badly, and management…

Thailand

Forth Smart Service Public Company Limited provides electronic payment innovations and integrated financial services in Thailand through automated payment machines, cashier counters, and payment systems under the 'Boonterm' trademark. The company also offers nano finance, personal loans, and payment services via 'GINKA Charge Point' electric vehicle charging stations. It was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Forth Smart Service (FSMART TB)

Five Big Ideas for the Next Five Years

Over the next five years, a lot of things will continue to change. In this review, we highlight five possible trends and two Thai stocks each that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Silicon Sequel: SCB on Fintech

During the weekend, we attended a presentation by Vacharapong Potjaneenont, who is Manager for Strategy & Business Development of Siam...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Three of a Kind: The Glass Is Greener on the Other Kiosk

We recently followed up with three companies we met in the past, and that's what this cryptic title means. Glass = TOG (Thai Optical Glass), Green...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

PTTEP: Second Wind For Oil Stocks

Arguably, no stock comes closer to mimicking oil prices in Thailand than PTTEP and its parent company PTT, aka largest stock in Thailand. Brent oil...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Fighting Fruits & Kiosk King

Contrasting Stocks in the Portfolio. Today, we met up with fruit juice company MALEE and kiosk king Forth (or rather their subsidiary ForthSmart),...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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