Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ur-energy-inc-845bf87b-f51b-4d57-8b7e-f6696dc23213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39270:1" rel="noopener">Ur-Energy (URG US)</a> in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index while there are no constituent changes for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

IsoEnergy (ISO CN) will replace Ur-Energy (URG US) in the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index at the close on 20 March.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> is an add to both indices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

Event-Driven

China Longyuan Power Group / Event-Driven

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drax-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21911:1" rel="noopener">Drax Group PLC (DRX LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enel-americas-sa-c3a67f8a-ad13-45ff-a676-cbc513b8c458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25965:1" rel="noopener">Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortum-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21762:1" rel="noopener">Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erg-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21186:1" rel="noopener">ERG SpA (ERG IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terna-rete-elettrica-nazionale" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21232:1" rel="noopener">Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avista-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17178:1" rel="noopener">Avista Corp (AVA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idacorp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15190:1" rel="noopener">Idacorp Inc (IDA US)</a>.Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verbund-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22563:1" rel="noopener">Verbund AG (VER AV)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edp-renovaveis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21363:1" rel="noopener">EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scatec-solar-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25120:1" rel="noopener">Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innergex-renewable-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25479:1" rel="noopener">Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boralex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25478:1" rel="noopener">Boralex Inc (BLX CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-gamesa-renewable-energy-s-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21270:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM)</a>.Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vestas-wind-systems-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22524:1" rel="noopener">Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaredge-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27981:1" rel="noopener">SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19726:1" rel="noopener">Sunrun Inc (RUN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enphase-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8872:1" rel="noopener">Enphase Energy (ENPH US)</a>.

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Drax Group PLC (DRX LN), Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US), Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH), ERG SpA (ERG IM), Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM), China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK), Nordex SE (NDX1 GR), Acciona SA (ANA SM), Avista Corp (AVA US) and Idacorp Inc (IDA US).Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ), Verbund AG (VER AV), EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL), Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO), Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN), Boralex Inc (BLX CN) and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM).Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC), Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC), SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US), Sunrun Inc (RUN US) and Enphase Energy (ENPH US). 

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

CEO, Manalo LLP

Roderick Manlo

Manalo LLP

We provide event driven research services to hedge fund managers and institutional investors that cover select definitive and pre-announced M&A deals, focusing on identifying and analysing the key upside and downside risks to a particular transaction. We primarily analyse $billion+ takeovers or mergers of publicly-traded European targets, but also look at deals globally to assess when there is a key European angle or aspect that can influence the deal outcome.

With over 16 years’ experience in risk arbitrage and investment banking, we specialise in providing research and advisory services on all facets of risk arbitrage, with particular expertise in:

- Cross-Border M&A
- Hostile Takeovers
- Local Takeover Codes
- Antitrust & Competition
- Financial Valuation
- Shareholder Vote Analysis
- Impacts of Precedent Transactions
- Risk Arbitrage Trading Strategies

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has “no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”, but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has “no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”, but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.

Uniper / Fortum: Fortum's Stance - Weighing Patience and Discipline with Additional Benefits

Finland

Fortum Oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. The Company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat and steam, as well as the operation of power plants and energy-related services. Fortum operates worldwide but mainly in Northern Europe.

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Fortum OYJ (FORTUM FH)

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way,...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: US$1.05bn Net Trade Across Indices

IsoEnergy will replace Ur-Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across both indices is US$1.05bn. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

CGN Mining is a double add, while Endesa and enCore Energy are deletes. Estimated net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m.

Brian Freitas

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

S&P will implement all proposals of the market consultation at the close on 16 April. This will create trading opportunities. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

Uniper / Fortum: Fortum's Stance - Weighing Patience and Discipline with Additional Benefits

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for...

Roderick Manlo

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