Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a> announced it had <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer%20Announcement%20for%20Sabana%20REIT%20by%20Volare%20Group%20AG.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=744629" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offered to buy</a> another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.</li>
<li>The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.</li>
<li>It's a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there's an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, after the close, 5.4% owner of Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) announced it had offered to buy another 10.0% in a Partial Offer at a recent high price.
The Price of the Tender Offer at S$0.465/share matches a recent (and 7-year) high and a 0.88x multiple against June 2022 NAV of S$0.53/share.
It's a small deal (US$35mm) for a small REIT (US$350mm) but there's an activist and an engaged not-quite sponsor, and this would make a third large unitholder in the mix.


Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT - Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

<ul>
<li>In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.</li>
<li>Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.</li>
<li>The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?</li>
</ul>


In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.
Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.
The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?


Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there <em>could be</em> some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term</li>
<li>These flows come at a time when prices are down off highs and liquidity is low.</li>
<li>There could be some price impact on certain types of S-REITs near-term.</li>
</ul>


Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term
These flows come at a time when prices are down off highs and liquidity is low.
There could be some price impact on certain types of S-REITs near-term.


Large Potential S-REIT Flows in the Next Two Weeks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Under the revised scheme consideration, each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP)</a> unitholder will receive S$0.097 in cash and 1.7729 new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> units at an issue price of S$0.4924.</li>
<li>The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. </li>
<li>We think that the revised offer is reasonable. For a 28 April payment date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.9% and 18.2%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


Under the revised scheme consideration, each ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP) unitholder will receive S$0.097 in cash and 1.7729 new ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) units at an issue price of S$0.4924.
The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. 
We think that the revised offer is reasonable. For a 28 April payment date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.9% and 18.2%, respectively. 


ARA LOGOS/ESR-REIT Scheme Meeting on 21 March, IFA Opinion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> announced their prospective merger on Friday. </li>
<li>The merger ratio provides an uplift to already strong recent relative performance for MAGIC holders, and strong pro-forma NAV and DPU accretion for MCT holders. </li>
<li>And it means a lot of flow. Lots and lots of flow. </li>
</ul>



Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) announced their prospective merger on Friday. 
The merger ratio provides an uplift to already strong recent relative performance for MAGIC holders, and strong pro-forma NAV and DPU accretion for MCT holders. 
And it means a lot of flow. Lots and lots of flow. 


Singapore

FLT offers investors an opportunity to invest in logistics and industrial real estate assets strategically located within major logistics and industrial markets of Australia, Germany and the Netherlands.

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP)

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Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP)

Partial Tender for Sabana Industrial REIT - Large Additional Player to the Activist Mix

Private industrial concern with significant fuel/real estate presence Volare Group AG owns 5.4% of Sabana Industrial REIT. They have announced a...

Travis Lundy

Update on the S-REIT Re-Allocation Trade

The S-REIT Re-Allocation Basket is +5.3%(TR) from close after I wrote (25 July) to yesterday. Not enough excess value has traded. Should it run?...

Travis Lundy

Large Potential S-REIT Flows in the Next Two Weeks

There may be a large inflow into S-REITs next week. It could range from 7-25 days of ADV or more for a large number of higher-yielding REITs and...

Travis Lundy

ARA LOGOS/ESR-REIT Scheme Meeting on 21 March, IFA Opinion

ARA Logos and ESR-REIT merger scheme meeting is set for 21 March. The IFA considers the revised scheme consideration to be fair. For a 28 April...

Arun George

Mapletree Mega-Merger Means MCT Markup

The proposed Mapletree Commercial Trust and Mapletree North Asian Commercial Trust combination creates a Top 10 Asian REIT and one of Singapore's...

Travis Lundy

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