Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/select-harvests-ltd-pricing-growth-adding-to-our-list-of-five-year-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18339">Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles</a> an…

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles an…

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport McMoRan's (FCX US)</a> Grasberg mine, which was scheduled to return to full production in 2027, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/freeport-indonesia-adjusts-grasberg-production-recovery-full-resumption-delayed-until-2028-6109926" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has now pushed its recovery to </a><a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/freeport-indonesia-adjusts-grasberg-production-recovery-full-resumption-delayed-until-2028-6109926" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2028</a>. The mine is running at 40-50% utilization.</li>
<li>Further pressure on the cost side as Indonesia proposed a step-up in royalties in gold, copper, and tin mining. We are already witnessing <a href="https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103887752-SMM-Copper-Flash-High-Diesel-Power-Generation-Costs-in-DRC-Put-SX-EW-Copper-Smelters-Under-Pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising fuel prices</a>/<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/041526-chinas-sulfuric-acid-restrictions-set-to-squeeze-miners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lower sulfuric acid supplies</a>. </li>
<li>We see that elevated copper prices are resulting in great Q1 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> </li>
</ul>



Freeport McMoRan's (FCX US) Grasberg mine, which was scheduled to return to full production in 2027, has now pushed its recovery to 2028. The mine is running at 40-50% utilization.
Further pressure on the cost side as Indonesia proposed a step-up in royalties in gold, copper, and tin mining. We are already witnessing rising fuel prices/lower sulfuric acid supplies. 
We see that elevated copper prices are resulting in great Q1 results from Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) / Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Lundin Mining (LUN CN) 


Grasberg Slips, Copper Rips: Sulfuric Acid Shortages and Diesel Costs Add Fuel

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22872" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22872:1">Copper (COPPER COMDTY)</a> (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore, a 12/17% setback should be expected over the coming months.</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/952/original/HG1%20Comdty%20%28Generic%201st%20'HG'%20Fut%202018-02-05%2019-09-05.png?1519036778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44952"></figure><ul>
<li>Linked stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21814" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a> are expected to relatively underperform against other metals companies.</li>
<li>In parallel, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26756:1">CLP (USDCLP CURNCY)</a> is also showing bottomish signals close to 595. A bullish reaction should be taking place towards 650 even 680.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/955/original/USDCLP%20Curncy%20%28USD-CLP%20X-RATE%29%20T%202018-02-05%2019-16-49.png?1519036988" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44955"></figure><ul><li>CLP…</li></ul>


Copper (COPPER COMDTY) (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore, a 12/17% setback should be expected over the coming months.
Linked stocks like Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US) are expected to relatively underperform against other metals companies.
In parallel, CLP (USDCLP CURNCY) is also showing bottomish signals close to 595. A bullish reaction should be taking place towards 650 even 680.
CLP…

Chile Peso and Copper at Key Levels : Correction

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

United States

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

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Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to...

Charles Spencer

Grasberg Slips, Copper Rips: Sulfuric Acid Shortages and Diesel Costs Add Fuel

Bullish on copper for 2026/2027: Grasberg delays, rising diesel costs, and sulfuric acid shortages tighten supply, widening the deficit.

Sameer Taneja

Chile Peso and Copper at Key Levels : Correction

Copper (COPPER COMDTY) (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore,...

Guillaume Coutant

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

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