New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Freightways (FRW) to report a strong 1H26 result on 16 February 2026.</li><li>We forecast EBITA growth of +14% on the prior year, driven by a combination of volume gains, price increases, and margin expansion, partially offset by adverse mix.</li><li>FRW reported 1Q26 EBITA up +12% on the prior year; we expect a sustained domestic economic recovery to have provided a further tailwind through 2Q26.</li></ul>

We expect Freightways (FRW) to report a strong 1H26 result on 16 February 2026.We forecast EBITA growth of +14% on the prior year, driven by a combination of volume gains, price increases, and margin expansion, partially offset by adverse mix.FRW reported 1Q26 EBITA up +12% on the prior year; we expect a sustained domestic economic recovery to have provided a further tailwind through 2Q26.

Freightways 1H26 Preview—Trucking Along Nicely

<ul><li>Freightways’ (FRW) first-quarter trading update highlights a business that is: (1) benefiting from the early stages of a cyclical recovery in New Zealand; (2) continuing to grow share through customer wins; and (3) investing to pursue further growth opportunities.</li><li>1Q26 EBITA grew strongly, up +12% on the prior year, driven primarily by Express Package operations, which delivered a combination of volume growth, price realisation, and operating leverage.</li><li>The near-term outlook is positive, with scope for an acceleration in earnings growth through the remainder of FY26.</li></ul>

Freightways’ (FRW) first-quarter trading update highlights a business that is: (1) benefiting from the early stages of a cyclical recovery in New Zealand; (2) continuing to grow share through customer wins; and (3) investing to pursue further growth opportunities.1Q26 EBITA grew strongly, up +12% on the prior year, driven primarily by Express Package operations, which delivered a combination of volume growth, price realisation, and operating leverage.The near-term outlook is positive, with scope for an acceleration in earnings growth through the remainder of FY26.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.</li>
<li>Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.</li>
<li>An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.</li>
</ul>


Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.
Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.
An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.


Transport Trends - Fuel Costs Have Cracked

<ul><li>Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.</li><li>2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.</li><li>Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.</li></ul>

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

New Zealand

Freightways Limited provides express package services throughout New Zealand along with providing information management and business mail services.  The Company's courier services includes same day and overnight national and international deliveries, freight forwarding services, computer media transport and payroll data deliveries.

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Freightways Ltd (FRE NZ)

Freightways 1H26 Preview—Trucking Along Nicely

We forecast EBITA growth of +14% on the prior year, driven by a combination of volume gains, price increases, and margin expansion, partially...

Forsyth Barr

Freightways Redelivering Strong Growth

1Q26 EBITA grew strongly, up +12% on the prior year, driven primarily by Express Package operations, which delivered a combination of volume...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Fuel Costs Have Cracked

Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Getting Into Gear

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

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