New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) reported a softer than expected first quarter trading update at its Annual Shareholder Meeting.</li><li>Management doesn't provide guidance, but its commentary suggests FY24 EBITA will be broadly flat on FY23.</li><li>We cut our earnings forecasts accordingly, implying another year of profit decline across the Group — excluding the first time benefit of Allied Express. </li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) reported a softer than expected first quarter trading update at its Annual Shareholder Meeting.Management doesn't provide guidance, but its commentary suggests FY24 EBITA will be broadly flat on FY23.We cut our earnings forecasts accordingly, implying another year of profit decline across the Group — excluding the first time benefit of Allied Express. 

Freightways NZ - Package Holiday Continues

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) reported a solid FY23 result but, as is usual for this increasingly diversified business, the devil is in the detail.</li><li>A strong first time contribution from Allied Express helped mask underlying weakness in its New Zealand parcel operations and Big Chill. </li><li>Same customer volumes are falling materially, particularly in the retail sector customer vertical. </li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) reported a solid FY23 result but, as is usual for this increasingly diversified business, the devil is in the detail.A strong first time contribution from Allied Express helped mask underlying weakness in its New Zealand parcel operations and Big Chill. Same customer volumes are falling materially, particularly in the retail sector customer vertical. 

Freightways - FY23 — Express Start from Allied

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) will likely report a solid FY23 result on Monday, 21 August 2023.</li><li>We expect earnings growth to be relatively subdued through 2H23 despite a weak prior year comparative.</li><li>​​​The accretive nature of the Allied Express deal will help mask headwinds across FRW's other operations due to cost pressures and a subdued volume environment.</li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) will likely report a solid FY23 result on Monday, 21 August 2023.We expect earnings growth to be relatively subdued through 2H23 despite a weak prior year comparative.​​​The accretive nature of the Allied Express deal will help mask headwinds across FRW's other operations due to cost pressures and a subdued volume environment.

Freightways - FY23 Preview — Waiting for Next Delivery

<ul><li>Lingering cost pressures delaying margin recovery: FRW's pricing power has been a key driver of its business model in recent years supported by rational competitor behaviour in the core NZ parcels market. </li><li>Volume risks apparent: FRW is not immune to the economic cycle</li><li>M&amp;A is the known unknown: Management's track record in driving value and earnings accretion through acquisitions was boosted by the favourable Big Chill deal (completed in early 2020).</li></ul>

Lingering cost pressures delaying margin recovery: FRW's pricing power has been a key driver of its business model in recent years supported by rational competitor behaviour in the core NZ parcels market. Volume risks apparent: FRW is not immune to the economic cycleM&amp;A is the known unknown: Management's track record in driving value and earnings accretion through acquisitions was boosted by the favourable Big Chill deal (completed in early 2020).

Freightways: Untimely Delivery of Economic Challenges

<ul><li>Freightways (FRW) will incur a number of additional costs through 2H23 that will dampen FY23 margins.</li><li>These relate to (1) the recent floods, (2) its upcoming ASX listing, and (3) aircraft lease costs for its express overnight network.</li><li>The majority of these costs are temporary in nature and not recoverable by price increases.</li></ul>

Freightways (FRW) will incur a number of additional costs through 2H23 that will dampen FY23 margins.These relate to (1) the recent floods, (2) its upcoming ASX listing, and (3) aircraft lease costs for its express overnight network.The majority of these costs are temporary in nature and not recoverable by price increases.

Freightways: 2H23 Margins to Be Impacted by One-Off Costs

New Zealand

Freightways Limited provides express package services throughout New Zealand along with providing information management and business mail services.  The Company's courier services includes same day and overnight national and international deliveries, freight forwarding services, computer media transport and payroll data deliveries.

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Freightways Ltd (FRE NZ)

Freightways NZ - Package Holiday Continues

We cut our earnings forecasts accordingly, implying another year of profit decline across the Group — excluding the first time benefit of Allied...

Forsyth Barr

Freightways - FY23 — Express Start from Allied

Freightways (FRW) reported a solid FY23 result but, as is usual for this increasingly diversified business, the devil is in the detail.

Forsyth Barr

Freightways - FY23 Preview — Waiting for Next Delivery

Freightways (FRW) will likely report a solid FY23 result on Monday, 21 August 2023. We expect earnings growth to be relatively subdued through 2H23...

Forsyth Barr

Freightways: Untimely Delivery of Economic Challenges

We lower our rating on Freightways (FRW) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM to reflect lingering cost and volume headwinds; FRW is better equipped to trade...

Forsyth Barr

Freightways: 2H23 Margins to Be Impacted by One-Off Costs

Freightways (FRW) will incur a number of additional costs through 2H23 that will dampen FY23 margins; these relate to (1) the recent floods, (2)...

Forsyth Barr

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