Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.</li>
<li>We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.
We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245


Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.</li>
<li>Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have discussed weekly since 10/14/25 how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, coinciding with the 50-day MA; this remains true.
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) held above $358-$361 and $41.70 supports and appear ready to resume their long-term uptrends. Recently discussed we were buyers in our October 29th report


Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

Norway

Frontline PLC owns a fleet of very large crude carriers and tankers that transport crude oil and oil products between ports. The Company's vessels are managed by ship management companies. Frontline conducts activities worldwide.

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Frontline (FRO US)

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on $SPX, $610 on $QQQ, and $257 on $IWM. We expect a period of consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25; SPX Holding at 3+ Month Uptrend Support

More Upside Ahead for Gold $GLD and Silver $SLV Following Oct. 29 Buys; $DXY Below $100.25 a Risk-On Signal; Downgrading Services to Market Weight;...

Vermilion Research

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

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