Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-china-a50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22905:1" rel="noopener">FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)</a> kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a counter trend risk to the underside of broken trendline that will act as the next big upside target and short zone.A share exhibit the higher conviction long set up with HK still vulnerble to any SPX pullback (dip and rally the bias into late April).Hong Kong - Conviction rests with buying a swing lower near HSI 27,500 and HSCEI 10,500-600 or a breakout now as we challenge the HSI 29,200 pivot barrier with 29,500 the next hurdle.

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a counter trend risk to the underside of broken trendline that will act as the next big upside target and short zone.A share exhibit the higher conviction long set up with HK still vulnerble to any SPX pullback (dip and rally the bias into late April).Hong Kong - Conviction rests with buying a swing lower near HSI 27,500 and HSCEI 10,500-600 or a breakout now as we challenge the HSI 29,200 pivot barrier with 29,500 the next hurdle.

A50 Long Signal and Hurdles to Backswing Target

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

HK short is meeting downside targets to turn from short to long - tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim. Taiwan call to...

Thomas Schroeder

A50 Long Signal and Hurdles to Backswing Target

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a...

Thomas Schroeder

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

CHINA BANKS: The PBOC and CBIRC released finalized new capital standards for the country’s D-SIBs. Equity raises require P/BV over 1.0x and many of...

Thomas J. Monaco

HK Digging for a Fresh Low

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. Bigger concern stems from the A50 trendline break that...

Thomas Schroeder

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

The SET has commenced a market consultation on the proposed changes to make its indices free float market cap weighted. We look at the impact on...

Brian Freitas