Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> increases from 15% to 20%.</li>
<li>This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.</li>
<li>The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) increases from 15% to 20%.
This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.
The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT</a> has announced a bump in the scheme consideration for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS</a> unitholders. Cash increases from S$0.095 to S$0.097 per unit, plus 1.7729 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> units (from 1.6765 earlier).</li>
<li>This follows Glass Lewis and ISS recommending that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS</a> unitholders vote against the Scheme. Plus there is a conflict of interest following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-cayman-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13301:1" rel="noopener">ARA Asset Management</a>.</li>
<li>While the situation is far from a great outcome for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS</a> unitholders, it is better than the earlier proposal and could pass muster this time around.</li>
</ul>



ESR-REIT has announced a bump in the scheme consideration for ARA LOGOS unitholders. Cash increases from S$0.095 to S$0.097 per unit, plus 1.7729 ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) units (from 1.6765 earlier).
This follows Glass Lewis and ISS recommending that ARA LOGOS unitholders vote against the Scheme. Plus there is a conflict of interest following ESR Cayman's acquisition of ARA Asset Management.
While the situation is far from a great outcome for ARA LOGOS unitholders, it is better than the earlier proposal and could pass muster this time around.


ESR-REIT's Improved Offer for ARA LOGOS: Two Cents More

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore's ST index ("STI") between now and the September 2023 index review.</li>
<li>With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.</li>
<li>Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore's ST index ("STI") between now and the September 2023 index review.
With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.
Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.


Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> has announced a 323:1000 underwritten rights issue at S$2.2/share that will raise S$798.8m to fund the WFS acquisition.</li>
<li>The rights issue price is a 20% discount to the last close and a 15.9% discount to the Theoretical Ex-Rights Price (TERP).</li>
<li>There has been a lot of short selling on the stock since the start of the year, peaking last week where 43% of total volume traded was from short selling.</li>
</ul>



SATS (SATS SP) has announced a 323:1000 underwritten rights issue at S$2.2/share that will raise S$798.8m to fund the WFS acquisition.
The rights issue price is a 20% discount to the last close and a 15.9% discount to the Theoretical Ex-Rights Price (TERP).
There has been a lot of short selling on the stock since the start of the year, peaking last week where 43% of total volume traded was from short selling.


SATS SP: S$800m Rights Issue to Fund WFS Acquisition

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a> </li>
<li>We also saw a an insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> together with significant commentary on the ongoing Keppel Group restructuring plus an ESG angle on Carsome that may IPO.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The Past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ), and Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) 
We also saw a an insight on Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) together with significant commentary on the ongoing Keppel Group restructuring plus an ESG angle on Carsome that may IPO.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Astra International, Bluebird Taxi, and Keppel Restructuring

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI), maintained & calculated by FTSE, is the most globally-recognised benchmark index and market barometer for Singapore. Dating back to 1966, it tracks the performance of the top 30 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. *Ticker changed from FSSTI on 10/9/2015. **Also revamped on January 10, 2008, for prices prior to that see STIOLD Index.

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

A methodology change that increases the minimum free float from 15% to 20% could result in 3 changes to the index. The three constituents will need...

Brian Freitas

ESR-REIT's Improved Offer for ARA LOGOS: Two Cents More

ESR REIT has improved its offer for ARA LOGOS following Glass Lewis & ISS recommending that ARA LOGOS unitholders vote against the scheme. This is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

As things stand, there could be one day of volume to buy in Sembcorp Marine and two days of volume to sell in KDCREIT but if share prices fluctuate...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SATS SP: S$800m Rights Issue to Fund WFS Acquisition

SATS has announced a 323:1000 rights issue at S$2.2/share that will raise S$798.8m to fund the WFS acquisition. Short selling was fierce last week...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Astra International, Bluebird Taxi, and Keppel Restructuring

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh