Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD638.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,177mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD638.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,177mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and the largest sell flows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on Astra International (ASII IJ) and the largest sell flows on POSCO Holdings (005490 KS). 


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-s-town-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4136:1" rel="noopener">King's Town Bank (2809 TT)</a> in the most recent quarter.</li>
<li>Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.</li>
<li>Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.</li>
</ul>


Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at King's Town Bank (2809 TT) in the most recent quarter.
Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.
Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.


King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 6th which has an aggregated holding worth USD621.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD449mln. We highlight foreign changes in Fubon Financial, TSMC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 6th which has an aggregated holding worth USD621.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD449mln. We highlight foreign changes in Fubon Financial, TSMC.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 6th): Fubon Financial, TSMC

Taiwan

Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company, formed through the merger of Fubon Insurance, Fubon Securities, Fubon Commercial Bank, and Fubon Life Assurance.

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Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

There are 265 adds/215 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 37% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

King's Town Bank is seeing earnings driven only by Fair Value Gains. Its net interest income, net fee income, operating costs, are worsening....

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 6th): Fubon Financial, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in Fubon Financial, Taiwan Semiconductor...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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