Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> - which currently owns 24.63% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> - announced it would buy another 2,043,200 shares.</li>
<li>This market purchase would lift them to just under 30% by year-end.</li>
<li>There have been similar trades done by others in the past and they were worth looking at.</li>
</ul>


On Friday after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) - which currently owns 24.63% of Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) - announced it would buy another 2,043,200 shares.
This market purchase would lift them to just under 30% by year-end.
There have been similar trades done by others in the past and they were worth looking at.


Medical Data Vision (3902) - SBI Upping Their Stake Means Opportunity

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)</a> reported 1QFY03/24 results today. Both revenue and OP increased 5.6% and 5.2% YoY to ¥660.8bn (vs consensus ¥649bn) and ¥52.2bn (vs consensus ¥52.1bn) respectively.</li>
<li>Materials segment’s earnings were negatively impacted during the quarter due to a stagnant semiconductor market, however, we expect segment’s earnings to improve with the completion of Entegris acquisition.</li>
<li>Despite the company successfully transitioning into a healthcare player, Fujifilm is still trading in line with imaging/photocopy players and there is significant upside to the company’s current share price.</li>
</ul>



FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) reported 1QFY03/24 results today. Both revenue and OP increased 5.6% and 5.2% YoY to ¥660.8bn (vs consensus ¥649bn) and ¥52.2bn (vs consensus ¥52.1bn) respectively.
Materials segment’s earnings were negatively impacted during the quarter due to a stagnant semiconductor market, however, we expect segment’s earnings to improve with the completion of Entegris acquisition.
Despite the company successfully transitioning into a healthcare player, Fujifilm is still trading in line with imaging/photocopy players and there is significant upside to the company’s current share price.


Fujifilm: Earnings Beat; Yet to Trade in Line with Healthcare Players

<ul>
<li>During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).</li>
<li>Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.</li>
<li>Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.</li>
</ul>


During 4QFY03/2023 results release, Nikon announced a medium-term target of revenues of ¥700bn, OPM of 10%+ and ROE of 8%+ by the end of FY2025E (FY ended 31st March 2026).
Our analysis (with conservative assumptions) suggests that the company could easily achieve its medium-term target despite the company expecting to see its earnings declining in FY03/2024E.
Nikon is trading at a discount to its Japanese peers Canon and Konica Minolta and we think the market is clearly undervaluing the company as a pure-play Imaging products player.


Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.</li>
<li>JSR's release (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/tdnet/2302693/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/ir_material4/209830/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.</li>
<li>Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei followed by other media outlets revealed Saturday that the JIC (株式会社産業革新投資機構) were in talks with JSR Corp (4185 JP) to acquire the photoresist maker for ¥1 trillion.
JSR's release (Japanese/English) noted that they are considering the matter, but no decision has been made. They note, however, a Board of Directors meeting on Monday 26 June 2023.
Articles suggest a Tender Offer "this year", delisting next. ¥1 trillion is a 50% premium. Or 35%. I expect shares go limit up, then we will get more news post-close.


JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

<ul>
<li>10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. </li>
<li>Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
<li>Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.</li>
</ul>


10 days ago Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. 
Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 
Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.


Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

Japan

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

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FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)

Medical Data Vision (3902) - SBI Upping Their Stake Means Opportunity

SBI is upping its stake in Medical Data Vision, a somewhat high-growth stock in the high-growth medical data processing and integration field....

Travis Lundy

Fujifilm: Earnings Beat; Yet to Trade in Line with Healthcare Players

Fujifilm's 1QFY24 earnings beat consensus. The company's transition into a healthcare player is yet to fully pay-off, and we expect recent M&As to...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nikon: A Reality Check on Nikon’s Medium-Term Management Plan

As Nikon is reporting earnings soon, this insight would help readers have a quick glance at the company's last quarter earnings and whether Nikon...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JIC To Launch ¥1 Trillion Takeover on JSR (4185)

News Saturday says govt-affiliated JIC will buy JSR (4185) for ¥1trln (EV or market cap?, either 50% or 35% premium). This may not be great for...

Travis Lundy

Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

The Canon buyback started 7 trading days ago and is likely nearly done. EPS forecasts are on the up vs peers. Stock is outperforming. There is a...

Travis Lundy

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