Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Flat as Debt Limit talks Weight; Fed's Bullard sees 2 more hikes; China Ban's Micron's Chips; Ford Moves to secure Lithium supplies. CEO sees Auto prices falling 5%</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai Elect,  CyrusOne set up Japan JV to invest in DataCenters</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan passed the GX Promotion Law that will support 150 trillion of investment over the next 10 years. Decarbonization boom in Japan is just beginning..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Flat as Debt Limit talks Weight; Fed's Bullard sees 2 more hikes; China Ban's Micron's Chips; Ford Moves to secure Lithium supplies. CEO sees Auto prices falling 5%
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai Elect,  CyrusOne set up Japan JV to invest in DataCenters
NUGGET.  Japan passed the GX Promotion Law that will support 150 trillion of investment over the next 10 years. Decarbonization boom in Japan is just beginning..


Ohayo Japan |SPX Flat;Crunch Time on the Debt; NUGGET: GX Promotion Law - Decarbonization Boom Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. </li>
<li>The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.</li>
<li>Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. 
The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.
Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.</li>
<li>On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.</li>
<li>Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.


<ul>
<li>Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. </li>
<li>But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year's was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. </li>
<li>This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. </li>
</ul>


Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. 
But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year's was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. 
This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. 


BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback - It's a Lot, but Not, but Still Big

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.</li>
<li>Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.</li>
<li>The timing of the next shortage is still in question.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
The timing of the next shortage is still in question.


Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Ohayo Japan |SPX Flat;Crunch Time on the Debt; NUGGET: GX Promotion Law - Decarbonization Boom Ahead

SPX flat. US faces Default by June 1 if no Debt deal; NKY Futs +0.4% premium vs Cash; Japan to tighten rules on Semi exports to China; Kansai...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

Toshiba has seen shares rise a bit since Day1 post-anncmt ~6 weeks ago, but Peers have risen further and the earnings shift on forward consensus is...

Travis Lundy

BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback - It's a Lot, but Not, but Still Big

Fujitsu announced earnings, forecast, and a big buyback. It is big enough at 4.3% to matter. But an earnings drop is not great. How peers will fare...

Travis Lundy

No Signs of a Chip Recovery

Has the chip downturn ended? No. Is there any sign that it's going to end soon? Again, no. This Insight provides concrete data points to...

Jim Handy

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