Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">In our October 1 <em>Int’l Compass </em>we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.</p>

In our October 1 Int’l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/974/original/File%202020-10-01%2015%2010%2035.jpeg?1601583635" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162974"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: NHK</div><p><strong>FAILOVER</strong><strong>FAILURE</strong> - The failure of the Fail Over system in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange (8697 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a> 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-</p><blockquote>
<p> Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   </p>
<h3>Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan</h3>
<p><strong>October 1st, 2020</strong></p>
</blockquote><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagaileben-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3165:1" rel="noopener">Nagaileben (7447 JP)</a> and waste management company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/977/original/2020-10-02_06-08-02.png?1601586653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162977"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/976/original/2020-10-02_06-10-05.png?1601586638" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162976"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>12 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +3.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> 0.5ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points</p></li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. </strong></p></div>

Source: NHKFAILOVERFAILURE - The failure of the Fail Over system in Japan Exchange (8697 JP) / Fujitsu (6702 JP) 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-
 Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   
Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan
October 1st, 2020
• BEST &amp; WORST •The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer Nagaileben (7447 JP) and waste management company Daiseki (9793 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS12 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.5ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%
7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points
Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

<p>Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications</p>

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

<p>Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. </p>

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Read our complete International Strategy document to find detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Read our complete International Strategy document to find detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie