Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company's decision to de-emphasize Freight Brokerage Services undermined Q3 results</li>
<li>The rest of the company's reporting segments performed well in all respects</li>
<li>Look for opportunity to buy YMM shares at US$9/ADS or better</li>
</ul>


The company's decision to de-emphasize Freight Brokerage Services undermined Q3 results
The rest of the company's reporting segments performed well in all respects
Look for opportunity to buy YMM shares at US$9/ADS or better


Full Truck Alliance Q325 Results: Trimming Freight Brokerage Services Means Slower Near-Term Growth

<ul>
<li>On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results</li>
<li>Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins</li>
<li>We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target</li>
</ul>


On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results
Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins
We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target


Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

<ul>
<li>FTA's revenue growth accelerated in Q124 and exceeded management guidance</li>
<li>Gross and OpInc margins (cash basis) both improved sharply in Q124</li>
<li>Growth, profitability, mix improved, but FTA no longer so cheap; HOLD</li>
</ul>


FTA's revenue growth accelerated in Q124 and exceeded management guidance
Gross and OpInc margins (cash basis) both improved sharply in Q124
Growth, profitability, mix improved, but FTA no longer so cheap; HOLD


Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance - HOLD

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong</li>
<li>Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin</li>
<li>Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus


Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

China

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. operates as a software company. The Company develops digital freight and logistics platform.

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Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)

Full Truck Alliance Q325 Results: Trimming Freight Brokerage Services Means Slower Near-Term Growth

Full Truck Alliance's Q325 results were the first to reflect the company's decision to de-emphasize its Freight Brokerage Services segment, a...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Strong Q4 results from Full Truck Alliance, and growth in all the right places. Guidance for Q1 suggests no slowdown in early '24, and shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Full Truck Alliance Q325 Results: Trimming Freight Brokerage Services Means Slower Near-Term Growth

Full Truck Alliance's Q325 results were the first to reflect the company's decision to de-emphasize its Freight Brokerage Services segment, a...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q124 Results: Strong Financials Match Recent Strong Share Performance - HOLD

Full Truck Alliance posted great Q1 numbers: revenue growth accelerated, margins expanded, and mix improved. But its shares have rallied and the...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Strong Q4 results from Full Truck Alliance, and growth in all the right places. Guidance for Q1 suggests no slowdown in early '24, and shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic