'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/082/original/2020-11-30_05-30-46.png?1606681863" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175082"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS </strong>- Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUNDS</strong> - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong> - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul><p>In the two Contrarian quadrants and especially for Contrarian Sells, companies can remain outliers for extended periods; however profitable Contrarian Sells in the last year have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/185/original/2020-11-26_08-13-23.png?1606346017" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174185"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/187/original/2020-11-26_08-18-21.png?1606346313" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174187"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN SELLS</a></strong>- In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look at the Turnarounds and Ex-Growth quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first Insight in the Series can be found here - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys</a>.</p>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants and especially for Contrarian Sells, companies can remain outliers for extended periods; however profitable Contrarian Sells in the last year have been Nippon Sanso (4091 JP) and Sekisui House (1928 JP). CONTRARIAN SELLS- In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look at the Turnarounds and Ex-Growth quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first Insight in the Series can be found here - Contrarian Buys.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Sells

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD31,695m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden, SoftBank, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, McDonald's, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD31,695m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden, SoftBank, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, McDonald's, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 19th): Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/135/795/original/2020-05-26_06-26-15.png?1590441998" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="135795"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-</p></div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.</li>
<li>For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki (7269 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha (7951 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu (7202 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.
For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be Suzuki (7269 JP), Yamaha (7951 JP), and Isuzu (7202 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,582m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata Manufacturing, Iida, JX Advanced Metals, Hitachi, McDonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,582m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata Manufacturing, Iida, JX Advanced Metals, Hitachi, McDonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Iida, Hitachi

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/531/original/2020-02-06_03-39-10.png?1580933731" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116531"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>. Amongst large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni (8002 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA(2432 JP)</a> had Operating Losses, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazda-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1" rel="noopener">Mazda Motor (7261 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura (5803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daicel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10533:1" rel="noopener">Daicel (4202 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5193:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Electric (5801 JP)</a> saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rengo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20278:1" rel="noopener">Rengo (3941 JP)</a>.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/532/original/2020-02-06_03-42-28.png?1580934310" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116532"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The <strong>Wholesale</strong> Sector was the largest loser yesterday with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi (8058 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5810:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu (8020 JP)</a> joining Marubeni in posting poor results. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)</a> slowing momentum and downward revision saw the <strong>Chemical</strong> Sector move lower again. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP)</a> initial forecast for FY2020 helped the <strong>Other Materials</strong> Sector recover some ground. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of Itochu (8001 JP). Amongst large caps, Marubeni (8002 JP) and DeNA(2432 JP) had Operating Losses, while Mazda Motor (7261 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Daicel (4202 JP), and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were Square Enix (9684 JP), and Rengo (3941 JP).• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The Wholesale Sector was the largest loser yesterday with Mitsubishi (8058 JP) and Kanematsu (8020 JP) joining Marubeni in posting poor results. Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP) slowing momentum and downward revision saw the Chemical Sector move lower again. AGC (5201 JP) initial forecast for FY2020 helped the Other Materials Sector recover some ground. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

Japan

Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures wires, cables, and metal products. The Company holds patents in optical fiber coating technology and produces optical fiber cables in the United States.  Furukawa Electric's metal products include aluminum cans, air conditioner parts, and shape memory alloys.

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Furukawa Electric (5801 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Sells

CONTRARIAN SELLS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Sells for potential opportunities.

Campbell Gunn

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 19th): Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements...

Campbell Gunn

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Iida, Hitachi

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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