External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segment</li><li>Reported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexQ4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segmentReported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q4FY23 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 3.1/6bn, well below our estimates, impacted by one-offs amounting to INR 12bn in the gas transmission segment and inventory loss of INR 2.3bn in the marketing segment</li><li>Higher-than-expected other income of INR 10.1bn in Q4 supported earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ4FY23 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 3.1/6bn, well below our estimates, impacted by one-offs amounting to INR 12bn in the gas transmission segment and inventory loss of INR 2.3bn in the marketing segmentHigher-than-expected other income of INR 10.1bn in Q4 supported earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (Results Review 4QFY23): Earnings Impacted by One-Offs

<ul><li>We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMs</li><li>Upstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisations</li><li>We expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMsUpstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisationsWe expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

<ul><li>State Bank of India: SBIN reported a strong all-around performance, leading to earnings well above our estimates</li><li>Balance sheet growth gained further traction across segments, with an impressive loan growth of +21% YoY</li><li>Asset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and SMA-I+II at 0.3%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India: SBIN reported a strong all-around performance, leading to earnings well above our estimatesBalance sheet growth gained further traction across segments, with an impressive loan growth of +21% YoYAsset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and SMA-I+II at 0.3%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, GAIL, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

<ul><li>Dabur: Dabur’s Q1 revenue growth and EBITDA margin were in line</li><li>Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%</li><li>Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%, Nestle 11/7%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur: Dabur’s Q1 revenue growth and EBITDA margin were in lineRevenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%, Nestle 11/7%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, GAIL (India)

India

GAIL India Limited processes and distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company is a Government of India undertaking.

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Gail India (GAIL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated...

HDFC Securities

Gail (Results Review 4QFY23): Earnings Impacted by One-Offs

Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the...

HDFC Securities

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, GAIL, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Asset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, GAIL (India)

Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 8%), with three-year CAGR at 7%. Domestic revenue/volume grew 10/5% YoY, with three-year CAGR at 12/8% vs HUL 9/2%,...

HDFC Securities

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