Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Earlier this month <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1104" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13917" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13917:1">Kidman Resources (KDR AU)</a> in a move that raised some eyebrows in the lithium sector. Wesfarmers had earlier gone after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> but that deal looks increasingly complex given the latter has several pending issues to be resolved in Malaysia. Yesterday Australian newspapers reported that several KDR investors were resisting the Wesfarmers offer as they say it undervalues the company.
This morning investors are informed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16331" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16331:1">Alliance Mineral Assets (AMS SP)</a> is placing 32.5M AUD worth of shares at 0.20 AUD/share to both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11366" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11366:1">Jiangxi Special Electric A (002176 CH).  </a>The entire placement will result in 13% dilution for existing shareholders.
After the placement Galaxy will become Alliance's largest shareholder with an almost 12% stake. Jiangxi Special Electric will own just over 9% of the company.
<div class="content-highlight">
Officially this placement will help speed up the development of the Bald Hill deposit but the real reason for this share issuance is to get Galaxy over 10% so it has a blocking minority in case any other buyers would be circling Alliance Mineral.
</div>
Over time a full takeover of Alliance by Galaxy is the only logical outcome. Tick Tock, how long will this take?

Earlier this month Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) bid for Kidman Resources (KDR AU) in a move that raised some eyebrows in the lithium sector. Wesfarmers had earlier gone after Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) but that deal looks increasingly complex given the latter has several pending issues to be resolved in Malaysia. Yesterday Australian newspapers reported that several KDR investors were resisting the Wesfarmers offer as they say it undervalues the company.
This morning investors are informed that Alliance Mineral Assets (AMS SP) is placing 32.5M AUD worth of shares at 0.20 AUD/share to both Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) and Jiangxi Special Electric A (002176 CH).  The entire placement will result in 13% dilution for existing shareholders.
After the placement Galaxy will become Alliance's largest shareholder with an almost 12% stake. Jiangxi Special Electric will own just over 9% of the company.

Officially this placement will help speed up the development of the Bald Hill deposit but the real reason for this share issuance is to get Galaxy over 10% so it has a blocking minority in case any other buyers would be circling Alliance Mineral.

Over time a full takeover of Alliance by Galaxy is the only logical outcome. Tick Tock, how long will this take? 

Alliance Mineral (AMS SP): Galaxy Resources Now Largest Shareholder, Tick Tock Until Full Takeover?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16331" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16331:1">Alliance Mineral Assets (AMS SP)</a> is a dual-listed (SGX/ASX) lithium producer in Australia. Last year the company saw its share price fall by 61% from 0.45 SGD (January 2018) to 0.17 SGD recently. Investing in lithium is all about the adoption of Electrical Vehicles (EV) going forward. While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> has been the poster child of the EV sector thus far, the next 24 months will see an onslaught of new arrivals by various brands which should expand the EV market substantially.The success of the EV segment largely depends on the improvements in battery technology and consumer choice. We reference from the excellent SmartKarma Originals piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/battery-technology-the-key-to-an-electric-vehicle-future" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29025">Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future</a> published earlier in April to conclude that lithium is likely to remain a key source for EV battery makers and Alliance Mineral's premium quality lithium will be in high demand. Should the market continue to ignore the asset value of Alliance Mineral it will likely become an attractive M&amp;A candidate for a larger lithium producer.We estimate the average cost of most of the current shareholder register is 0.30+ SGD hence the pressure on management to create lasting value is intense. With the Bald Hill mine ramping up in FY20 (June Year-End) and FY21, offtake partly secured and more agreements in the offing, shares are only trading at 2x EV/EBITDA. Its closest competitors <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7460" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1"></a> are both trading at 8x EV/EBITDA.Our estimate of Fair Value is 0.35 SGD or 106% upside from the current share price based on an extremely conservative 4x 2020 EV/EBITDA multiple.

Alliance Mineral Assets (AMS SP) is a dual-listed (SGX/ASX) lithium producer in Australia. Last year the company saw its share price fall by 61% from 0.45 SGD (January 2018) to 0.17 SGD recently. Investing in lithium is all about the adoption of Electrical Vehicles (EV) going forward. While Tesla Motors (TSLA US) has been the poster child of the EV sector thus far, the next 24 months will see an onslaught of new arrivals by various brands which should expand the EV market substantially.The success of the EV segment largely depends on the improvements in battery technology and consumer choice. We reference from the excellent SmartKarma Originals piece Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future published earlier in April to conclude that lithium is likely to remain a key source for EV battery makers and Alliance Mineral's premium quality lithium will be in high demand. Should the market continue to ignore the asset value of Alliance Mineral it will likely become an attractive M&amp;A candidate for a larger lithium producer.We estimate the average cost of most of the current shareholder register is 0.30+ SGD hence the pressure on management to create lasting value is intense. With the Bald Hill mine ramping up in FY20 (June Year-End) and FY21, offtake partly secured and more agreements in the offing, shares are only trading at 2x EV/EBITDA. Its closest competitors Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) are both trading at 8x EV/EBITDA.Our estimate of Fair Value is 0.35 SGD or 106% upside from the current share price based on an extremely conservative 4x 2020 EV/EBITDA multiple.

Discover Singapore: Alliance Mineral; Supplies High Quality Lithium to EV; Buy at 2x 2020 EV/EBITDA

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

Boost Research Ltd is an appointed representative of Messels Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FCA of the UK. 

This document is issued by Boost Research Limited solely for its clients. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed to any other person in whole or in part for any purpose without written consent of Boost Research. The material in this document is not intended for distribution or use outside the United Kingdom. This material is not directed at you if Boost Research is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you.

This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation, inducement or recommendation relating to the subscription, purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.  This document does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice.  It is accordingly recommended that you should seek independent advice from a suitably qualified professional advisor before taking any decisions in relation to the investments detailed herein. All expressions of opinions and estimates constitute a judgement and, unless otherwise stated, are those of the author and the research department of Boost Research only, and are subject to change without notice. Boost Research is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. Whilst Boost Research has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Boost Research cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. This document is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to herein. No representation or warranty either expressed or implied is made, nor responsibility of any kind is accepted, by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this document nor should it be relied on as such. No liability whatsoever is accepted by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts for any loss, whether direct or consequential, arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient acting on the content of this document, including, without limitation, lost profits arising from the use of this document or any of its contents.

This document is provided with the understanding that Boost Research is not acting in a fiduciary capacity and it is not a personal recommendation to you. Investing in securities entails risks. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Investments in the entities and/or the securities or other financial instruments referred to are not suitable for all investors and this document should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment in relation to any such investment. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein will generally be the closing price at the end of any of the three business days immediately prior to the publication date on this document. This stated price is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price.

Boost Research and its respective analysts are remunerated for providing investment research to professional investors, corporations, other research institutions and consultancy houses. Boost Research, or its respective directors, officers, employees and clients may have or take positions in the securities or entities mentioned in this document.  Any of these circumstances could create, or be perceived as creating, conflicts of interest. Boost Research’ analysts are not censored in any way and are free to express their personal opinions. As a result, Boost Research may have issued other documents that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from, the information contained in this document. Those documents reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of their authors. No director, officer or employee of Boost Research is on the board of directors of any company referenced herein and no one at any such referenced company is on the board of directors of Boost Research.

Messels is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority for the provision of investment advice. Residents of the United Kingdom should seek specific professional financial and investment advice from a stockbroker, banker, solicitor, accountant or other independent professional adviser authorised pursuant to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This report is intended only for investors who are 'professional clients' as defined by the FCA, and may not, therefore, be redistributed to other classes of investors.

The content of this report is covered by our Policy of Independence which may be viewed at www.messels.com.

 

Analysts’ Certification

The analysts involved in the production of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views about the securities mentioned herein. The analysts point out that they may buy, sell or already have taken positions in the securities, and related financial instruments, mentioned in this document

<ul>
<li>Cover 314 companies, soon to be expanded</li>
<li>Recommend Speculative Buy on PEX</li>
<li>Thick VMS intersections e.g. 40m @ 10.2% Zn, 2.83 % Pb</li>
<li>Economic mineralisation at Southern Nights starts at 120m depth</li>
<li>Wagga Tank prospect recorded 9.3m @ 7.32% Zn, 3.38% Pb</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9713:1">Metals X Ltd (MLX AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5968" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9553" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12867" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12867:1">First Graphite (FGR AU)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8189" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8189:1">Sovereign Metals (SVM AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17908:1">Globe Specialty Metals (GSM US)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15733" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15733:1">White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7971:1">Carnegie Clean Energy (CCE AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8807:1">Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU)</a>  </li>
</ul>


Cover 314 companies, soon to be expanded
Recommend Speculative Buy on PEX
Thick VMS intersections e.g. 40m @ 10.2% Zn, 2.83 % Pb
Economic mineralisation at Southern Nights starts at 120m depth
Wagga Tank prospect recorded 9.3m @ 7.32% Zn, 3.38% Pb

Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) ; Metals X Ltd (MLX AU); Ramelius Resources (RMS AU); Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU); First Graphite (FGR AU) ; Galaxy Resources (GXY AU); Sovereign Metals (SVM AU); Globe Specialty Metals (GSM US); White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU); Carnegie Clean Energy (CCE AU); Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU)  


New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 25/01/19)

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

<ul>
<li>Sega Sammy stock has dipped considerably off it 52 week high.</li>
<li>Its legacy pachinko and pachslot businesses are declining, shifting long-term management goals toward expansion in integrated resorts.</li>
<li>Corporate officials have dispatched 64 top managers from Japan to its South Korea gaming property to train as an advance team for a  possible IR win in Japan.</li>
</ul>As leading IR developers frustration levels rise over the persistent delays of the Japanese Diet in passing a problem gambling bill, I asked our…


Sega Sammy stock has dipped considerably off it 52 week high.
Its legacy pachinko and pachslot businesses are declining, shifting long-term management goals toward expansion in integrated resorts.
Corporate officials have dispatched 64 top managers from Japan to its South Korea gaming property to train as an advance team for a  possible IR win in Japan.
As leading IR developers frustration levels rise over the persistent delays of the Japanese Diet in passing a problem gambling bill, I asked our…

Could Sega Sammy Holdings Be a Smart Wild Card Bet on a Japanese Casino License?

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

30 May 2016 - Galaxy Resource announced a merger with General Mining:<ul><li>General Mining shareholders will receive 1.65 shares in Galaxy Resource for every share held</li><li>We tuned in to the conference call held earlier this morning; we asked why an off-market takeover instead of a scheme and if there are any regulatory approvals that might be needed</li></ul>In this insight we analyze the Bid Implementation Agreement and examine the likelihood of the transaction going through.

30 May 2016 - Galaxy Resource announced a merger with General Mining:General Mining shareholders will receive 1.65 shares in Galaxy Resource for every share heldWe tuned in to the conference call held earlier this morning; we asked why an off-market takeover instead of a scheme and if there are any regulatory approvals that might be neededIn this insight we analyze the Bid Implementation Agreement and examine the likelihood of the transaction going through.

General Mining / Galaxy Resource - Freshly Minted Mining Merger

Australia

Galaxy Resources Limited provides mining services. The Company produces lithium, potash, hard rock and brine assets. Galaxy Resources serves customers in Australia, Argentina, and Canada.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)

Alliance Mineral (AMS SP): Galaxy Resources Now Largest Shareholder, Tick Tock Until Full Takeover?

Earlier this month Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) bid for Kidman Resources (KDR AU) in a move that raised some eyebrows in the lithium sector. Wesfarmers...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Discover Singapore: Alliance Mineral; Supplies High Quality Lithium to EV; Buy at 2x 2020 EV/EBITDA

Alliance Mineral Assets (AMS SP) is a dual-listed (SGX/ASX) lithium producer in Australia. Last year the company saw its share price fall by 61%...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 25/01/19)

Cover 314 companies, soon to be expanded Recommend Speculative Buy on PEX Thick VMS intersections e.g. 40m @ 10.2% Zn, 2.83 % Pb Economic...

Boost Research

Could Sega Sammy Holdings Be a Smart Wild Card Bet on a Japanese Casino License?

Sega Sammy stock has dipped considerably off it 52 week high. Its legacy pachinko and pachslot businesses are declining, shifting long-term...

Howard J Klein

General Mining / Galaxy Resource - Freshly Minted Mining Merger

30 May 2016 - Galaxy Resource announced a merger with General Mining: General Mining shareholders will receive 1.65 shares in Galaxy Resource for...

Crispin Francis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)