Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>A couple of baskets I suggested in my last insight have both outperformed the CSI 300 index by more than 2% in less than a month.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
A couple of baskets I suggested in my last insight have both outperformed the CSI 300 index by more than 2% in less than a month.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Western Superconducting Techno / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>CIS market revenue was US$21.3bn in 2022, stagnated with 0.2% YoY decline, according to Yole.</li><li>The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced significant decline (42.8% YoY) in the past year.</li><li>Domestic CIS players took a strong hit by 1) the weak mobile/security demand, 2) slower-thanexpected inventory digestion and 3) intensified competition among overseas and domestic peers. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIS market revenue was US$21.3bn in 2022, stagnated with 0.2% YoY decline, according to Yole.The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced significant decline (42.8% YoY) in the past year.Domestic CIS players took a strong hit by 1) the weak mobile/security demand, 2) slower-thanexpected inventory digestion and 3) intensified competition among overseas and domestic peers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi – China CIS sector – Solid auto CIS growth offset by weak mobile CIS demand

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>I currently expect 14 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. </li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
I currently expect 14 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. 


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations

AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes. This is the first rebalance with less than 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.03% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 1,025m. Given the adds are new listings, there will be some reverse funding flow.</li>
<li>There appears to be little pre-positioning on the adds while there is a bigger buildup on the deletes.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in two changes. This is the first rebalance with less than 5 changes at a review.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.03% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 1,025m. Given the adds are new listings, there will be some reverse funding flow.
There appears to be little pre-positioning on the adds while there is a bigger buildup on the deletes.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in June (As Expected)

China

GalaxyCore Inc. develops, manufactures, and distributes emiconductor and integrated circuits. The Company produces complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) image sensor and display driver chips. GalaxyCore supplies its products in consumer electronics, mobile payment, automotive electronics, and other fields.

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GalaxyCore (688728 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way

There could be 12 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500 and I see combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 of around US$2.8bn...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

Semi – China CIS sector – Solid auto CIS growth offset by weak mobile CIS demand

The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations

The 13 CSI 300 Expected ADDs and DELs could see US$824mn index buying and US$534mn index selling. The 50 CSI 500 Expected ADDs and DELs could see...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in June (As Expected)

There are 2 changes for the STAR50 Index as a 6-month minimum listing history is used. There is little increase in excess volume on the adds while...

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way

There could be 12 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500 and I see combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 of around US$2.8bn...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

Semi – China CIS sector – Solid auto CIS growth offset by weak mobile CIS demand

The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations

The 13 CSI 300 Expected ADDs and DELs could see US$824mn index buying and US$534mn index selling. The 50 CSI 500 Expected ADDs and DELs could see...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in June (As Expected)

There are 2 changes for the STAR50 Index as a 6-month minimum listing history is used. There is little increase in excess volume on the adds while...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.5bn One-Way Turnover; Some Changes to Expectations