Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Games Workshop Group PLC / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>With profit in line with expectations, Games Workshop Group’s (GAW) H122 trading update is reassuring. The previously flagged forex and freight cost pressures have negatively affected pre-licensing profit. This was partially offset by an exceptional level of licensing income versus GAW’s trading history. Our FY22 forecasts are unchanged ahead of the publication of H122 results. The FY22e P/E of 25.0x is in line with GAW’s recent average multiple. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.</p>

With profit in line with expectations, Games Workshop Group’s (GAW) H122 trading update is reassuring. The previously flagged forex and freight cost pressures have negatively affected pre-licensing profit. This was partially offset by an exceptional level of licensing income versus GAW’s trading history. Our FY22 forecasts are unchanged ahead of the publication of H122 results. The FY22e P/E of 25.0x is in line with GAW’s recent average multiple. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.

Games Workshop Group - H122 helped by licensing income

<p>Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicates sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) is in line with management expectations. Management has highlighted pressure on freight costs and currency exchange rates given GAW’s high international exposure. The declared dividend of 25p per share brings the year-to-date total to 65p. Our forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.
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Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicates sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) is in line with management expectations. Management has highlighted pressure on freight costs and currency exchange rates given GAW’s high international exposure. The declared dividend of 25p per share brings the year-to-date total to 65p. Our forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.


Games Workshop Group - Revenue growth against a tough comparative

<p>Games Workshop’s (GAW) FY21 results were at record levels from the perspective of revenue, profitability, cash flow generation and cash returns to shareholders, driven by the launch of the ninth edition of 40K as well as products from prior year releases. The phasing and scale of future new product releases in FY22 and FY23 may produce lower rates of growth than FY21. Management’s focus on product innovation, customer engagement and geographic expansion has tended to provide positive surprises. Our DCF-based valuation increases by c 8% to £129 per share.</p>

Games Workshop’s (GAW) FY21 results were at record levels from the perspective of revenue, profitability, cash flow generation and cash returns to shareholders, driven by the launch of the ninth edition of 40K as well as products from prior year releases. The phasing and scale of future new product releases in FY22 and FY23 may produce lower rates of growth than FY21. Management’s focus on product innovation, customer engagement and geographic expansion has tended to provide positive surprises. Our DCF-based valuation increases by c 8% to £129 per share.

<p>Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) year-end trading update highlights higher revenue and a more significant increase in operating profit and licensing income, versus our expectations. FY21 has been very strong despite COVID-19 restrictions on retail, likely incremental costs due to Brexit and recent currency headwinds. Management’s new estimates for FY21 imply year-on-year growth for revenue and PBT of at least c 30% and c 68% respectively and limited underlying cost growth of c 4%. The strong performance has led to higher year-on-year rewards for staff (profit-related pay increased fivefold) and shareholders (total dividend of 235p versus 145p). We increase our forecasts for FY21 to be consistent with the new estimates and make a modest upgrade to FY22. Our DCF-based valuation increases to 12,000p.</p>

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) year-end trading update highlights higher revenue and a more significant increase in operating profit and licensing income, versus our expectations. FY21 has been very strong despite COVID-19 restrictions on retail, likely incremental costs due to Brexit and recent currency headwinds. Management’s new estimates for FY21 imply year-on-year growth for revenue and PBT of at least c 30% and c 68% respectively and limited underlying cost growth of c 4%. The strong performance has led to higher year-on-year rewards for staff (profit-related pay increased fivefold) and shareholders (total dividend of 235p versus 145p). We increase our forecasts for FY21 to be consistent with the new estimates and make a modest upgrade to FY22. Our DCF-based valuation increases to 12,000p.

Games Workshop Group - Rounding off a stellar year

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1062357/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 82% higher</a> at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45956" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. </p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. 

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

United Kingdom

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW LN)

Games Workshop Group - H122 helped by licensing income

With profit in line with expectations, Games Workshop Group’s (GAW) H122 trading update is reassuring. The previously flagged forex and freight...

Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group - Revenue growth against a tough comparative

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicates sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) is in line with management expectations....

Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group - Indomitable

Games Workshop’s (GAW) FY21 results were at record levels from the perspective of revenue, profitability, cash flow generation and cash returns to...

Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group - Rounding off a stellar year

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) year-end trading update highlights higher revenue and a more significant increase in operating profit and licensing...

Edison Investment Research

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

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