Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vulcan Energy Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vulcan-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30774:1" rel="noopener">Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> will be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vulcan-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30774:1" rel="noopener">Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tronox-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6778:1" rel="noopener">Tronox Holdings (TROX US)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be deleted from the index.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.
The largest inflows will be in Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) and Tronox Holdings (TROX US). 


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Ping An, and outflows from PICC P&amp;C, BYD, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Ping An, and outflows from PICC P&amp;C, BYD, CNOOC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Top Monthly Inflows in 12 Months

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> has disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.</li>
<li>The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. </li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) has disclosed a binding offer from Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).
The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.
The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. </li>
<li>The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). No terms were disclosed.
According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. 
The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

China

Ganfeng Lithium is a global leader in the lithium industry, specializing in the production and sales of lithium products and lithium batteries. Its business spans the entire lithium value chain, including upstream lithium resource development, midstream lithium refining and metal smelting, and downstream lithium battery manufacturing and recycling. The company's products, such as lithium salts and batteries, are widely used in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, consumer electronics, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Ganfeng Lithium was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, China.

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Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Vulcan Energy is an add and Tianqi Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is US$37m. Vulcan is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Top Monthly Inflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Ping An, PICC P&C, BYD, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Vulcan Energy is an add and Tianqi Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is US$37m. Vulcan is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Top Monthly Inflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Ping An, PICC P&C, BYD, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes