IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that China Minmetals Corporation’s HK$1.00 scheme offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 February. </li>
<li>No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.</li>
<li>At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.1%/23.9%. </li>
</ul>



Minmetals Land (230 HK)’s IFA opines that China Minmetals Corporation’s HK$1.00 scheme offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 February. 
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.
At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.1%/23.9%. 


Minmetals Land (230 HK): Scheme Vote on 9 February Is a Done Deal

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into ICBC,  CCB, Meituan, Innovent Biologics, Xpeng and outflows from Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into ICBC,  CCB, Meituan, Innovent Biologics, Xpeng and outflows from Petrochina.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: $7.3bn of Inflows in September

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

<ul>
<li>There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.</li>
<li>We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.
We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

China

Ganglong China Property Group is an established property developer in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China, focusing on the development and sales of residential properties mixed with accompanying ancillary facilities such as retail units and car parks. The company primarily operates in mainland China's real estate sector. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the group was founded in Changzhou in 2007.

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Ganglong China Property Group (6968 HK)

Minmetals Land (230 HK): Scheme Vote on 9 February Is a Done Deal

This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium. At the last close price and for a 10 March payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows: $7.3bn of Inflows in September

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for September and highlight flows for ICBC, CCB, Meituan, Innovent Biologics, Xpeng and Petrochina.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 22 adds/ 27 deletes for the HSCI in Sep leading to 22 adds/ 24 deletes for Stock Connect. Since end June, shares held though Southbound...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

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