FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

We recently spoke to Gateway Lifestyle's CEO about the future prospects of the company. The stock has held up since IPO and now trades at a 5% premium to IPO price.At the time of IPO we were bullish on the deal and we remain convinced about the business model, while management remains firm on the pro-forma targets which will result in Gateway trading at 12x FY16 earnings and at a 6.3% yield.&nbsp;This remains at a discount to peers despite the company being larger than peers. We continue to remain buyers with near term triggers for the stock being broker initiation post IPO black out completion and company reporting FY15 numbers, which appear to be on target.&nbsp;

We recently spoke to Gateway Lifestyle's CEO about the future prospects of the company. The stock has held up since IPO and now trades at a 5% premium to IPO price.At the time of IPO we were bullish on the deal and we remain convinced about the business model, while management remains firm on the pro-forma targets which will result in Gateway trading at 12x FY16 earnings and at a 6.3% yield.&nbsp;This remains at a discount to peers despite the company being larger than peers. We continue to remain buyers with near term triggers for the stock being broker initiation post IPO black out completion and company reporting FY15 numbers, which appear to be on target.&nbsp;

6% yield, near single digits FY16 p/e plus easy double digit growth while still owning the asset

Equity Capital Markets

Gateway Lifestyle / Equity Capital Markets

Gateway Lifestyle plans to raise US$300m through a mix of primary and secondary shares issuance.&nbsp;The deal scores well on our framework given the company's track record of rapidly building up its portfolio, combined with the reasonable valuations of the IPO. Media reports indicate that over 75% of the deal has been taken up by cornerstone investors, while the company is said to have received bids from KKR as well but instead management opted for an IPO at lower valuations. We would be inclined to take the deal.

Gateway Lifestyle plans to raise US$300m through a mix of primary and secondary shares issuance.&nbsp;The deal scores well on our framework given the company's track record of rapidly building up its portfolio, combined with the reasonable valuations of the IPO. Media reports indicate that over 75% of the deal has been taken up by cornerstone investors, while the company is said to have received bids from KKR as well but instead management opted for an IPO at lower valuations. We would be inclined to take the deal.

Another play on aging Australia, deal scores well on almost all aspects. We would take the deal

Australia

Gateway Lifestyle Holdings Pty Ltd provides living solutions for senior citizens. The Company develops, owns and operates residential parks and communities for Australian elderly citizens.

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Gateway Lifestyle (GTY AU)

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

6% yield, near single digits FY16 p/e plus easy double digit growth while still owning the asset

We recently spoke to Gateway Lifestyle's CEO about the future prospects of the company. The stock has held up since IPO and now trades at a 5%...

Sumeet Singh

Another play on aging Australia, deal scores well on almost all aspects. We would take the deal

Gateway Lifestyle plans to raise US$300m through a mix of primary and secondary shares issuance. The deal scores well on our framework given the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)