IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> disclosed a preliminary non-binding proposal from Bain Capital at US$8.00 per ADS, a 27.4% premium to the undisturbed price of US$6.28 per ADS.</li>
<li>For privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of the shares present and voting need to approve the deal. The offeror represents 87.39% of the total voting power. </li>
<li>While the offer is unattractive, Bain Capital’s voting rights ensure that the vote will pass. The key risks are regulatory approvals and timing. </li>
</ul>



Chindata Group (CD US) disclosed a preliminary non-binding proposal from Bain Capital at US$8.00 per ADS, a 27.4% premium to the undisturbed price of US$6.28 per ADS.
For privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of the shares present and voting need to approve the deal. The offeror represents 87.39% of the total voting power. 
While the offer is unattractive, Bain Capital’s voting rights ensure that the vote will pass. The key risks are regulatory approvals and timing. 


Chindata (CD US): Bain Capital’s Low-Balled Privatisation Offer

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent developments materially improve the setup: H200 clarity reduces a major sector overhang and removes uncertainty around chip supply, clearing the way for continued AI-infrastructure expansion in China.</li>
<li>3Q25: VNET's strong result, 2026 outlook, advantaged power resources, and shareholder priorities (no equity dilution and defined leverage limits) reduce downside bottoms-up risk while increasing confidence on execution</li>
<li>None of this is reflected in today’s valuation. With 25–30% EBITDA CAGR and improved visibility on demand and execution, VNET is positioned for a material 2026 re-rating, implying 60-100% upside.</li>
</ul>


Recent developments materially improve the setup: H200 clarity reduces a major sector overhang and removes uncertainty around chip supply, clearing the way for continued AI-infrastructure expansion in China.
3Q25: VNET's strong result, 2026 outlook, advantaged power resources, and shareholder priorities (no equity dilution and defined leverage limits) reduce downside bottoms-up risk while increasing confidence on execution
None of this is reflected in today’s valuation. With 25–30% EBITDA CAGR and improved visibility on demand and execution, VNET is positioned for a material 2026 re-rating, implying 60-100% upside.


2026 High-Conviction: VNET US - Thesis Strengthens Into 2026  (Chips, Demand, Execution)

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025</li>
<li>Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission</li>
<li>Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS</li>
</ul>


The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025
Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission
Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS


RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a rally in the stock over the last 3 months, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> could be added to a global index in August.</li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> has been increasing. Add the short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> and the number is pretty big.</li>
<li>Despite the recent rally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its closest peer and there could be opportunities to enter market neutral trades.</li>
</ul>


Following a rally in the stock over the last 3 months, GDS Holdings (9698 HK) / GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) could be added to a global index in August.
Short interest in GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has been increasing. Add the short interest in GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) and the number is pretty big.
Despite the recent rally, GDS Holdings (9698 HK) trades cheaper than its closest peer and there could be opportunities to enter market neutral trades.


GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both GDS and VNET declined more than 70% from all time high.   We think both stocks are over-penalized by market from top-down macro-economic reasons and geo-political tensions</li>
<li>We think there is a dis-connect between the share price and solid company fundamentals.   The explosive growth in demand for AI and Cloud computing infrastructure remains strong</li>
<li>GDS is a mature, blue-chip name that offers sustainable profitability while on de-leveraging.  VNET is a high-growth, high-risk turnaround play with its wholesale offering higher short-term upside</li>
</ul>


Both GDS and VNET declined more than 70% from all time high.   We think both stocks are over-penalized by market from top-down macro-economic reasons and geo-political tensions
We think there is a dis-connect between the share price and solid company fundamentals.   The explosive growth in demand for AI and Cloud computing infrastructure remains strong
GDS is a mature, blue-chip name that offers sustainable profitability while on de-leveraging.  VNET is a high-growth, high-risk turnaround play with its wholesale offering higher short-term upside


GDS and VNET – Recent Pullback Provides Entry Opportunity, Long-Term AI Growth Solid and Strong

China

GDS Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops and operates data centers. GDS Holdings offers risk and security management, information technology planing, remote monitoring, cloud hosting, virtualization, disaster recovery, and remote data protection services.

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GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)

Chindata (CD US): Bain Capital’s Low-Balled Privatisation Offer

While the offer is unattractive, Bain Capital’s voting rights ensure that the vote will pass. The key risks are regulatory approvals and timing.

Arun George

2026 High-Conviction: VNET US - Thesis Strengthens Into 2026 (Chips, Demand, Execution)

VNET benefits most as H200 clarity lifts chip risk and 3Q results resolve major investor concerns. We see VNET as one of the strongest 2026E calls...

Raj S, CA, CFA

RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Investors should see through Fed's 25bps rate cut and HK's Policy Address, and focus on macro development, geopolitical risks, as well as sector...

Jacob Cheng

GDS Holdings (9698 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Shorts Build Up

GDS Holdings could be added to a global index in August. That will drive passive buying and could lead to some shorts being covered. Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

GDS and VNET – Recent Pullback Provides Entry Opportunity, Long-Term AI Growth Solid and Strong

Both GDS and VNET has declined >70% from all time high, providing a golden entry oppportunity. GDS is a mature blue-chip play offering...

Jacob Cheng

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