Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.
</li>
</ul>


Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.


Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 2.9% in November, but has outperformed its benchmark by 4.9% since inception on October 1st.  It has outperformed HSI, HSCI and HSCEI by 9%.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha has generated idiosyncratic returns during the market correction.  The portfolio has no exposure to energy, healthcare and property sectors. </li>
<li>We exit 4 positions at the end of the month and add positions in software, tech components, travel and restaurant sectors.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 2.9% in November, but has outperformed its benchmark by 4.9% since inception on October 1st.  It has outperformed HSI, HSCI and HSCEI by 9%.
Hong Kong Alpha has generated idiosyncratic returns during the market correction.  The portfolio has no exposure to energy, healthcare and property sectors. 
We exit 4 positions at the end of the month and add positions in software, tech components, travel and restaurant sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (November 2024)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-ruyi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK)</a> has broken out from its triangle pattern.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.
Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK) has broken out from its triangle pattern.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market is range bound with conglomerates showing strength over the last few weeks.  As the CNY/HKD strengthens the A/H premium should narrow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunevision-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:110:1" rel="noopener">SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK)</a> reported good results on the back of increased demand driven by the AI sector. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)</a> reported flat sales and an increase in operating profit in a difficult fast food retail environment in China.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market is range bound with conglomerates showing strength over the last few weeks.  As the CNY/HKD strengthens the A/H premium should narrow.

SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) reported good results on the back of increased demand driven by the AI sector. 


Yum China Holdings (9987 HK),Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) reported flat sales and an increase in operating profit in a difficult fast food retail environment in China.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

<ul>
<li>Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.</li>
<li>Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.</li>
<li>The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.</li>
</ul>


Onshore Equity ETF flows in China continued to be positive for 8th week. Southbound Connect flows in July are lower than June.
Baidu, Bilibili and GDS have had positive share price moves on the back of news flow.
The container shipping segment has had a sharp pullback on positive Middle East news and cement maker CNBM flags a loss in the first half.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

China

GDS Holdings is a leading developer and operator of high-performance data centers in China. The company provides colocation, managed hosting, and managed cloud services, serving hyperscale cloud service providers, large internet companies, financial institutions, and telecommunications carriers. GDS Holdings was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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GDS Holdings (9698 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Mainland investors purchased a record amount of HK shares during 2024. GDS Holding announced that it may list its China assets in a REIT. Tencent...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (November 2024)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio continues to outperform during the market correction in HK/China stocks. We continue to like the consumer discretionary...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

GDS continues to rally after its breakout from its 2 year downtrend. Huatai maintained a BUY on the stock and raised its target price to HK$27.49...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 12)

Hong market should benefit from a stronger CNY/HKD as the Fed begins to cut rates. SUNeVision is benefiting from increased demand from the AI...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment China/Hong Kong (July 12)

ETF flows in China have continued to support the overall A share market while Southbound Connect flows support Hong Kong shares. Positive news for...

David Mudd

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