Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 3rd): Tencent, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Meituan

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final ranks for potential ADDs/DELs and the resultant capping flow expectations for the HSTECH index rebal event in September 2026.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes for September 2026 but we see roughly US$1.9bn in one-way capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final ranks for potential ADDs/DELs and the resultant capping flow expectations for the HSTECH index rebal event in September 2026.
We expect no index changes for September 2026 but we see roughly US$1.9bn in one-way capping flows.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: Final Ranks; US$1.9bn One-Way Capping

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Impact of wafer shortage extended to auto chips recently, and forced several factories of VW JVs in China to suspend production for a few days early December 2020, according to local media' reports on 8th Dec. CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) estimate, based on survey over more than 60 OEMs, is that MCU short supply - which mainly lead to production issue of ESP(（Electronic Stability Program) and ECU(Electronic Control Unit) and hence mid-high end cars - might cause short term interruption on some OEMs in 1Q2021 before getting released afterwards. According to latest media reports, Honda JVs and VW JVs in JV brands are both impacted so far. Geely (175.HK) and Changan (000625.CH) are under pressure. However, as the short supply is led by short term reasons and actions have been taken in the whole supply chain, it would not change our positive view on China's auto sector 2021E. Instead, if any share performance weakness happens due to related components shortage, that would be buying opportunities for investors.

Impact of wafer shortage extended to auto chips recently, and forced several factories of VW JVs in China to suspend production for a few days early December 2020, according to local media' reports on 8th Dec. CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) estimate, based on survey over more than 60 OEMs, is that MCU short supply - which mainly lead to production issue of ESP(（Electronic Stability Program) and ECU(Electronic Control Unit) and hence mid-high end cars - might cause short term interruption on some OEMs in 1Q2021 before getting released afterwards. According to latest media reports, Honda JVs and VW JVs in JV brands are both impacted so far. Geely (175.HK) and Changan (000625.CH) are under pressure. However, as the short supply is led by short term reasons and actions have been taken in the whole supply chain, it would not change our positive view on China's auto sector 2021E. Instead, if any share performance weakness happens due to related components shortage, that would be buying opportunities for investors.  

China Auto: Short-Term Interruptions from Auto Chips Shortage

We are bullish on PV sales in 2021E. We estimate China's PV sales will grow by 10% yoy to 22.2mn units. We also estimate China's EV (electric vehicle) sales double will in 2021E.SUV's market share would continue growing and might reach 50% soon in China due to customers' preference, while premium car market (above Rmb130k) would continue gain market shares with consumption upgrading. B/C segment EV SUVs, as long as there's qualified models available, would be the hottest segment in 2021E.Among EV brands, Tesla (TSLA.US) Shanghai might be the biggest winner next year, thanks to its coming Model Y (SUV). Xpeng(EPEV.US) is our favourite in local brand. It would  launch a new sedan EV (P5) in 2021E.  Xpeng's new SUV model might come in 2022E.  NIO's (NIO.US) sales would under pressure due to direct competition from Model Y.Among traditional OEMs, Geely (175.HK) remains our favourite due to high expected growth of earnings driven by ramping up Lynk&amp;Co, new models and coming brand new designed EV models.

We are bullish on PV sales in 2021E. We estimate China's PV sales will grow by 10% yoy to 22.2mn units. We also estimate China's EV (electric vehicle) sales double will in 2021E.SUV's market share would continue growing and might reach 50% soon in China due to customers' preference, while premium car market (above Rmb130k) would continue gain market shares with consumption upgrading. B/C segment EV SUVs, as long as there's qualified models available, would be the hottest segment in 2021E.Among EV brands, Tesla (TSLA.US) Shanghai might be the biggest winner next year, thanks to its coming Model Y (SUV). Xpeng(EPEV.US) is our favourite in local brand. It would  launch a new sedan EV (P5) in 2021E.  Xpeng's new SUV model might come in 2022E.  NIO's (NIO.US) sales would under pressure due to direct competition from Model Y.Among traditional OEMs, Geely (175.HK) remains our favourite due to high expected growth of earnings driven by ramping up Lynk&amp;Co, new models and coming brand new designed EV models.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a> .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) and Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

China's Next Generation:  Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited is a leading Chinese automotive company primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sale of passenger vehicles and related components. It offers a diverse portfolio of products including sedans, SUVs, and electric vehicles under brands such as Geely Auto, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1973.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 3rd): Tencent, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Meituan

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: Final Ranks; US$1.9bn One-Way Capping

Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) and MiniMax (100 HK) have cornerstone lock-ups that expire on 8th July 2026. There will be upweights in HSTECH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Auto: Short-Term Interruptions from Auto Chips Shortage

Impact of wafer shortage extended to auto chips recently, and forced several factories of VW JVs in China to suspend production early December...

Victoria Li

China Auto 2021E Outlook: Winter Is Over

We are bullish on PV sales in 2021E. We estimate China's PV sales will grow by 10% yoy to 22.2mn units. We also estimate China's EV (electric...

Victoria Li

China's Next Generation: Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

China exposure is becoming more concentrated in a small number of large cap stocks. We identify the next generation of China stocks by analyzing...

Steven Holden

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