New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A huge generation month for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MCY</a>, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winter</li><li>Climate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earnings</li><li>FY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus </li></ul>

A huge generation month for MCY, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winterClimate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earningsFY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus 

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.</li><li>Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.</li><li>While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF guidance due to favourable operating conditions.</li><li>The climate outlook for the next 12 months is also favourable, with expected El Niño conditions generally positive for the sector, as it means above-average hydro and wind generation for most.</li><li>Our preferred stocks are Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY, rated OUTPERFORM. GNE and Meridian Energy (MEL) are rated NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF guidance due to favourable operating conditions.The climate outlook for the next 12 months is also favourable, with expected El Niño conditions generally positive for the sector, as it means above-average hydro and wind generation for most.Our preferred stocks are Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY, rated OUTPERFORM. GNE and Meridian Energy (MEL) are rated NEUTRAL.

Power Points El Nino Set to Make a Splash—May 2026

<ul><li>February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.</li><li>The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.</li></ul>

February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

<ul><li>January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).</li><li>January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.</li><li>For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.</li></ul>

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Lifting hydro storage +30pp to 123% of average; GNE and MCY reported solid sets of 4Q22 operating statistics; CEN and MEL posted decent finishes to...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25. Favourable operating...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points El Nino Set to Make a Splash—May 2026

April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).

Forsyth Barr

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