New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>March 2026 was generally a positive month for the sector, with capital raisings completed, share price performance better than the weak market (on average), EV sales spiking to near-record levels, Contact Energy (CEN) receiving wind farm resource consent, a bit of electricity demand growth, and Mercury (MCY) winning the contract to supply Datagrid.</li><li>Looking ahead, the sector remains well fuelled for winter 2026, with MCY the best placed with very strong hydro storage for this time of year.</li><li>MCY and CEN remain our preferred stocks in the sector, with both rated OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

March 2026 was generally a positive month for the sector, with capital raisings completed, share price performance better than the weak market (on average), EV sales spiking to near-record levels, Contact Energy (CEN) receiving wind farm resource consent, a bit of electricity demand growth, and Mercury (MCY) winning the contract to supply Datagrid.Looking ahead, the sector remains well fuelled for winter 2026, with MCY the best placed with very strong hydro storage for this time of year.MCY and CEN remain our preferred stocks in the sector, with both rated OUTPERFORM.

Power Points Conflict Fuels EV Power Surge—April 2026

<ul><li>November 2025 was dominated by three of the four generator-retailers hosting investor days—all three of which were positive on the long-term outlook for the sector and focused on how each business will meet the expected demand growth and fuel supply challenges.</li><li>Looking ahead to 2026, key themes are likely to be the election, the progression of new developments, the gas market (and the LNG decision) and electricity demand growth.</li><li>Our preferred sector exposures are Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY), both rated OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

November 2025 was dominated by three of the four generator-retailers hosting investor days—all three of which were positive on the long-term outlook for the sector and focused on how each business will meet the expected demand growth and fuel supply challenges.Looking ahead to 2026, key themes are likely to be the election, the progression of new developments, the gas market (and the LNG decision) and electricity demand growth.Our preferred sector exposures are Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY), both rated OUTPERFORM.

Power Points - FUELLED FOR 2026—December 2025

<ul><li>Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.</li><li>MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.</li><li>History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.</li></ul>

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

<ul><li>New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.</li></ul>

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

<ul><li>New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.</li><li>The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.</li><li>Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.</li></ul>

New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Power Points Conflict Fuels EV Power Surge—April 2026

March 2026 was generally a positive month for the sector, with capital raisings completed, share price performance better than the weak market (on...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - FUELLED FOR 2026—December 2025

Looking ahead to 2026, key themes are likely to be the election, the progression of new developments, the gas market (and the LNG decision) and...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days. MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in...

Forsyth Barr

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