New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.</li><li>We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.</li><li>Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.</li></ul>

We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.</li></ul>

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

<ul><li>New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.</li><li>The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.</li><li>Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.</li></ul>

New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

<ul><li>We like the valuation metrics that the sector is currently offering, with the electricity sector underperforming its yield peers despite performing well vs the market.</li><li>Electricity demand increased +5.7% in August 2025 vs 2024, with 60% of the increase due to New Zealand’s largest consumer, NZAS, returning to full demand in late August for the first time in 14 months.</li><li>FY25 saw the combined EBITDAF of the generator–retailers fall -9% vs FY24.</li></ul>

We like the valuation metrics that the sector is currently offering, with the electricity sector underperforming its yield peers despite performing well vs the market.Electricity demand increased +5.7% in August 2025 vs 2024, with 60% of the increase due to New Zealand’s largest consumer, NZAS, returning to full demand in late August for the first time in 14 months.FY25 saw the combined EBITDAF of the generator–retailers fall -9% vs FY24.

Power Points - DEMAND STORMS BACK—SEPTEMBER 2025

<ul><li>We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.</li><li>While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.</li></ul>

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Gentrack FY25 Preview—Dj Vu

We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - DEMAND STORMS BACK—SEPTEMBER 2025

We like the valuation metrics that the sector is currently offering, with the electricity sector underperforming its yield peers despite performing...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.

Forsyth Barr

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