New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).</li>
<li>The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.</li>
<li>2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. </li>
</ul>


2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).
The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.
2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. 


Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

<ul><li>Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.</li><li>Risks of a repeat of winter 2024 appear low, based on ASX futures prices.</li><li>With Contact Energy’s (CEN) Te Huka geothermal plant starting its month-long reliability run, there is significantly more generation in the market compared to 12 months ago. </li></ul>

Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.Risks of a repeat of winter 2024 appear low, based on ASX futures prices.With Contact Energy’s (CEN) Te Huka geothermal plant starting its month-long reliability run, there is significantly more generation in the market compared to 12 months ago. 

Power Points - Looking Ahead to the New Year — Dec 2024

<ul><li>October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.</li><li>Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.</li><li>With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. </li></ul>

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. 

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It's a case of what could have been for Genesis Energy (GNE), with rain coming at a good time for the sector, but a little too early from GNE's perspective.</li><li>The effects of the 4Q24/1Q25 dry period are evident in GNE's 1Q25 operating statistics, with record high thermal fuel costs and a lower gas retail margin impacting profitability.</li><li>It is very hard for thermal generators to make money in the New Zealand market, and 1Q25 is another example of that. </li></ul>

It's a case of what could have been for Genesis Energy (GNE), with rain coming at a good time for the sector, but a little too early from GNE's perspective.The effects of the 4Q24/1Q25 dry period are evident in GNE's 1Q25 operating statistics, with record high thermal fuel costs and a lower gas retail margin impacting profitability.It is very hard for thermal generators to make money in the New Zealand market, and 1Q25 is another example of that. 

Genesis Energy - Dry Spell Upside A Mirage — 1Q25 Op Stats

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.</li><li>This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.</li><li>Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Looking Ahead to the New Year — Dec 2024

Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Dry Spell Upside A Mirage — 1Q25 Op Stats

It's a case of what could have been for Genesis Energy (GNE), with rain coming at a good time for the sector, but a little too early...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

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