Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Create SD is one of the largest food &amp; drug hybrid retailers in Japan and dominates its home Kanagawa market. </li>
<li>The company now plans to grow sales by 49% over the next five years, adding 30-40 stores a year.</li>
<li>With the supermarket sector now entering a period of significant disruption, Create also plans to acquire local chains to accelerate expansion.</li>
</ul>


Create SD is one of the largest food &amp; drug hybrid retailers in Japan and dominates its home Kanagawa market. 
The company now plans to grow sales by 49% over the next five years, adding 30-40 stores a year.
With the supermarket sector now entering a period of significant disruption, Create also plans to acquire local chains to accelerate expansion.


Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Leading proxies recommend that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger on 26 May.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  </li>
<li>For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      </li>
</ul>


Leading proxies recommend that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger on 26 May.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  
For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250411005584/en/Orbis-Statement-on-Proposed-Merger-Between-Tsuruha-and-Welcia-and-Proposed-Tender-Offer-by-Aeon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intends to vote NO</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   


Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

<ul>
<li>Trial was already one of Japan's leading discount retailers with a strong network of stores down south in Japan although rather low margins.</li>
<li>Buying Seiyu transforms this local retailer into a national champion and one of the top 10, with a highly complementary set of stores, product expertise, warehouses and tech.</li>
<li>Together, the two will now be able to take on Aeon, Seven &amp; I, PPI and other major retailers in building the first true national grocery chains in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Trial was already one of Japan's leading discount retailers with a strong network of stores down south in Japan although rather low margins.
Buying Seiyu transforms this local retailer into a national champion and one of the top 10, with a highly complementary set of stores, product expertise, warehouses and tech.
Together, the two will now be able to take on Aeon, Seven &amp; I, PPI and other major retailers in building the first true national grocery chains in Japan.


Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japan

Genky DrugStores Co., Ltd. operates drug stores. The Company sells prescription drugs and medications. Genky DrugStores provides its services in Japan.

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Genky DrugStores Co Ltd (9267 JP)

Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

​Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

Unsurprisingly, Orbis has opposed the transactions, as the terms of the share exchange and partial offer are unfavourable for Tsuruha shareholders....

Arun George

Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

​Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...