Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

<p style="text-align: justify;">Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 <em>Int’l Compass </em>reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..</p>

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In a rapidly evolving biotech landscape, Danish cancer therapeutics giant Genmab is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Merus N.V., a Dutch developer specializing in bispecific antibodies for hard-to-treat cancers like head and neck tumors.</li>
<li>This potential deal, tipped to be announced imminently, follows a mid-stage clinical win for Merus’s lead asset, petosemtamab, which showed an impressive 63% overall response rate when combined with Merck’s Keytruda.</li>
<li>With Merus’s market capitalization surging over 60% YTD to $5.2 billion, Genmab appears to be positioning itself for a strategic leap in the immuno-oncology arena.</li>
</ul>


In a rapidly evolving biotech landscape, Danish cancer therapeutics giant Genmab is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Merus N.V., a Dutch developer specializing in bispecific antibodies for hard-to-treat cancers like head and neck tumors.
This potential deal, tipped to be announced imminently, follows a mid-stage clinical win for Merus’s lead asset, petosemtamab, which showed an impressive 63% overall response rate when combined with Merck’s Keytruda.
With Merus’s market capitalization surging over 60% YTD to $5.2 billion, Genmab appears to be positioning itself for a strategic leap in the immuno-oncology arena.


GMAB's $5B Power Play: Is Merus The Missing Piece In Its Cancer War Chest?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genmab-a-s-26418c4e-f8a3-407b-a60e-422af04febfe" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28558:1" rel="noopener">Genmab A/S (GMAB US)</a> recorded 30% YoY growth in royalty revenue on net sales of Darzalex to DKK1,952 million, representing 68% of total revenue in 1Q23.</li>
<li>Genmab has guided for 2023 Darzalex royalty revenue of DKK10.4–11.1B, compared to royalty revenue of DKK10.1B in 2022, based on estimated Darzalex 2023 net sales of $9.4 – 10.0B.</li>
<li>In May 2023, Genmab received FDA approval for Epkinly as the first and only T-cell engaging bispecific antibody for the treatment of relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.</li>
</ul>



Genmab A/S (GMAB US) recorded 30% YoY growth in royalty revenue on net sales of Darzalex to DKK1,952 million, representing 68% of total revenue in 1Q23.
Genmab has guided for 2023 Darzalex royalty revenue of DKK10.4–11.1B, compared to royalty revenue of DKK10.1B in 2022, based on estimated Darzalex 2023 net sales of $9.4 – 10.0B.
In May 2023, Genmab received FDA approval for Epkinly as the first and only T-cell engaging bispecific antibody for the treatment of relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.


Genmab A/S (GMAB US): Darzalex Continued to Be the Cash Cow; Epkinly Approval Adds Another Catalyst

Denmark

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company specializes in development of antibody therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. Genmab serves customers worldwide.

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Genmab A/S (GMAB US)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

GMAB's $5B Power Play: Is Merus The Missing Piece In Its Cancer War Chest?

With Merus’s market capitalization surging over 60% YTD to $5.2 billion, Genmab appears to be positioning itself for a strategic leap in the immuno...

Baptista Research

Genmab A/S (GMAB US): Darzalex Continued to Be the Cash Cow; Epkinly Approval Adds Another Catalyst

Royalty revenue from top-selling cancer drug Darzalex continues to contribute ~70% of Genmab’s revenue. The company’s 2 proprietary FDA-approved...

Tina Banerjee

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