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Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a platform for low-carbon drop-in fuels and chemicals sourced from non-fossil resources like corn. </li><li>Gevo has currently operating assets in low-carbon ethanol, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) (Gevo North Dakota), and renewable natural gas (RNG) (Gevo RNG in Iowa).</li><li>Low-carbon ethanol is the feedstock for its alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and Gevo is planning a 30-million-gallon ATJ (ATJ-30) plant (Project North Star).</li></ul>

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a platform for low-carbon drop-in fuels and chemicals sourced from non-fossil resources like corn. Gevo has currently operating assets in low-carbon ethanol, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) (Gevo North Dakota), and renewable natural gas (RNG) (Gevo RNG in Iowa).Low-carbon ethanol is the feedstock for its alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and Gevo is planning a 30-million-gallon ATJ (ATJ-30) plant (Project North Star).

GEVO: 2Q26 Beat and Doubled Guidance Drive Significant Upgrade to Our Estimates

<div><ul><li>The SAF market opportunity is vast and underserved. The US consumes 20-25 billion gallons of jet fuel annually, growing ~10% over the next decade as most fossil fuel markets plateau, yet SAF production today is negligible.</li><li>With 15 billion gallons of domestic ethanol production from abundant corn crops, Frey characterized Gevo’s mission as connecting that supply to enormous unmet aviation fuel demand.</li><li>A layered revenue model drives margins far above the commodity ethanol baseline. </li></ul></div>

The SAF market opportunity is vast and underserved. The US consumes 20-25 billion gallons of jet fuel annually, growing ~10% over the next decade as most fossil fuel markets plateau, yet SAF production today is negligible.With 15 billion gallons of domestic ethanol production from abundant corn crops, Frey characterized Gevo’s mission as connecting that supply to enormous unmet aviation fuel demand.A layered revenue model drives margins far above the commodity ethanol baseline. 

GEVO: WTR Insights Conference Takeaways - Selling Carbon Removal, Not Just Gallons of Ethanol

<div><ul><li>Gevo acquired its North Dakota sequestration site last year, inheriting a Class 6 well that has been operating since 2022. </li><li>The company is on track to sequester or avoid CO2 emissions equivalent to taking 100,000 cars off the road.</li><li>Frey said, “People talk a lot about carbon capture and sequestration, but we’re doing it. It’s not theoretical for us.”</li></ul></div><div><p style="list-style-type: square;"></p></div>

Gevo acquired its North Dakota sequestration site last year, inheriting a Class 6 well that has been operating since 2022. The company is on track to sequester or avoid CO2 emissions equivalent to taking 100,000 cars off the road.Frey said, “People talk a lot about carbon capture and sequestration, but we’re doing it. It’s not theoretical for us.”

GEVO: WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap with VP Finance & Strategy Dr. Eric Frey

<ul><li>Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. </li><li>In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. </li><li>Gevo recently reported 1Q26 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 million (see 1Q26 results recap). </li></ul>

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and valuable co-products. In North Dakota, Gevo has an integrated low-carbon ethanol plant with large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and is planning a 30-million-gallon alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-30) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. Gevo recently reported 1Q26 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 million (see 1Q26 results recap). 

GEVO: Raising Our Forecasts; Debottlenecking and CDRs Support 48% EBITDA Growth in 2027E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. </li><li>Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.</li><li>In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.</li></ul></div>

The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

United States

Gevo Inc. operates as a technology development company for biobutanol. The Company offers products that enable the production of fuels for the diesel and jet markets, and the production of green chemicals derived from renewable resources.

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Gevo (GEVO US)

GEVO: 2Q26 Beat and Doubled Guidance Drive Significant Upgrade to Our Estimates

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a platform for low-carbon drop-in fuels and chemicals sourced from non-fossil resources like corn.

Water Tower Research

GEVO: WTR Insights Conference Takeaways - Selling Carbon Removal, Not Just Gallons of Ethanol

The US consumes 20-25 billion gallons of jet fuel annually, growing ~10% over the next decade as most fossil fuel markets plateau, yet SAF...

Water Tower Research

GEVO: WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap with VP Finance & Strategy Dr. Eric Frey

Gevo acquired its North Dakota sequestration site last year, inheriting a Class 6 well that has been operating since 2022.

Water Tower Research

GEVO: Raising Our Forecasts; Debottlenecking and CDRs Support 48% EBITDA Growth in 2027E

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a geographically diversified technology-driven company that produces cost-effective renewable fuels, chemicals, and...

Water Tower Research

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance...

Water Tower Research

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