IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A <a href="https://susong-item.taobao.com/auction/683969821701.htm?spm=a213w.7398554.paiList.1.51e41fa3epY51Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener">successful bidder</a> (identity unknown at the time of writing) has emerged for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at the base bid price of RMB1,372.2 million.</li>
<li>As the bidder will hold 30% or more of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO at RMB1.383 per share (HK$1.526 at the <a href="https://www.bankofchina.com/sourcedb/whpj/enindex_1619.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median BOC</a> FX of 0.9056).  </li>
<li>The transfer of the sale shares is subject to completion procedures. Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 15.6%. </li>
</ul>


A successful bidder (identity unknown at the time of writing) has emerged for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake at the base bid price of RMB1,372.2 million.
As the bidder will hold 30% or more of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO at RMB1.383 per share (HK$1.526 at the median BOC FX of 0.9056).  
The transfer of the sale shares is subject to completion procedures. Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At the last close, the gross spread is 15.6%. 


Fengxiang’s Judical Auction Successful, MGO Upcoming

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, Thailand’s leading integrated food company, will open its books for its THB17.4 billion (US$462 million) from 10 to 25 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/betagro-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81570" rel="noopener">Betagro IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/betagro-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81612" rel="noopener">Betagro IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Betagro is fully priced at the IPO price. Give the IPO a pass, awaiting a lower entry point.</li>
</ul>



Betagro (BTG TB), Thailand’s leading integrated food company, will open its books for its THB17.4 billion (US$462 million) from 10 to 25 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Betagro IPO: The Bull Case and Betagro IPO: The Bear Case. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that Betagro is fully priced at the IPO price. Give the IPO a pass, awaiting a lower entry point.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, Thailand’s leading integrated food company, is seeking to raise US$462 million at an IPO price of THB40 per share. Books open on 10 October.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/betagro-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81570" rel="noopener">Betagro IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on weak sector market sentiment, second largest business under pressure, elevated raw material prices and mid-tier EBITDA margin and ROE.</li>
</ul>



Betagro (BTG TB), Thailand’s leading integrated food company, is seeking to raise US$462 million at an IPO price of THB40 per share. Books open on 10 October.
In Betagro IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
The key elements of the bear case rest on weak sector market sentiment, second largest business under pressure, elevated raw material prices and mid-tier EBITDA margin and ROE.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro Group (1737144D TB)</a>, Thailand’s leading integrated food company, is seeking to raise US$554 million through a SET IPO, according to press reports</li>
<li>Betagro plans to offer 500 million shares or 25% of the total issued shares after IPO. This will be Thailand's second-largest listing this year after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a>. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile growth rates, a well-functioning core business, rising profitability, cash generation and declining leverage.</li>
</ul>



Betagro Group (1737144D TB), Thailand’s leading integrated food company, is seeking to raise US$554 million through a SET IPO, according to press reports
Betagro plans to offer 500 million shares or 25% of the total issued shares after IPO. This will be Thailand's second-largest listing this year after Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB). 
The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile growth rates, a well-functioning core business, rising profitability, cash generation and declining leverage.


<ul>
<li>On 16 September, the administrator published the details for the auction of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang Co Ltd-H (9977 HK)</a> controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake in Alibaba Judicial Auction. </li>
<li>If the auction is successful and results in any person and a group of persons acting in concert holding 30%+ of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO.</li>
<li>The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close. The auction will be held from 10 October to 11 October.</li>
</ul>


On 16 September, the administrator published the details for the auction of Shandong Fengxiang Co Ltd-H (9977 HK) controlling shareholder’s 70.92% stake in Alibaba Judicial Auction. 
If the auction is successful and results in any person and a group of persons acting in concert holding 30%+ of the voting rights, it will result in an MGO.
The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close. The auction will be held from 10 October to 11 October.


Fengxiang’s Judicial Auction Set for 10 October, Potential MGO

Thailand

GFPT Public Company Limited operates a fully integrated poultry business, encompassing feed mills, breeder and broiler farms, hatcheries, chicken evisceration, and processed food production. The company produces and distributes fresh, frozen, and cooked chicken products, as well as land and aquatic animal feed, for both domestic and international markets. GFPT was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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GFPT (GFPT TB)

Fengxiang’s Judical Auction Successful, MGO Upcoming

The succesful bid will result in an MGO at HK$1.526 (at the median BOC FX of 0.9056). Our best guess is the offer completes end-January 2023. At...

Arun George

Betagro IPO: Valuation Insights

Betagro is a well-run company. However, it is fully priced at the IPO price of THB40 per share. Give the IPO a pass, awaiting a lower entry point.

Arun George

Betagro IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on weak sector market sentiment, second largest business under pressure, elevated raw material prices and...

Arun George

Betagro IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile growth rates, a well-functioning core business, rising profitability, cash generation and...

Arun George

Fengxiang’s Judicial Auction Set for 10 October, Potential MGO

If the auction is successful, it will result in an MGO. The base bid implies an MGO price of HK$1.563 per H Share, a 103.0% premium to the last close.

Arun George

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