Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.</li><li>Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.</li><li>GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. </li></ul>

Based on our analysis, if trade negotiations with the US proceed as Thailand hopes — enabling the import of corn and soybean meal from the US at lower costs for use as animal feed — and if there are no GMO-related barriers to Thai chicken exports, it is expected to benefit Thai livestock producers through improved margins from lower feed input costs and enhanced long-term competitiveness.Our study indicates that CPF would benefit the most in absolute value, while mid-sized players like BTG and TFG are likely to see the most positive impact on the 2026E profit estimates.GFPT would experience the largest increase in its gross profit margin (GPM) relative to its base case. 

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

<ul><li>Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and the region.</li><li>These companies are expected to maintain strong profit margins QoQ, supported by rising meat prices YoY and QoQ and lower raw material costs.</li><li>Given that CPF and TFG’s 1Q25 profits exceeded expectations due to significantly higher-than-expected GPMs, we have revised up our 2025-27E profit forecasts by an average of 11% and 5% per year, respectively. </li></ul>

Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in Thailand, Vietnam, and the region.These companies are expected to maintain strong profit margins QoQ, supported by rising meat prices YoY and QoQ and lower raw material costs.Given that CPF and TFG’s 1Q25 profits exceeded expectations due to significantly higher-than-expected GPMs, we have revised up our 2025-27E profit forecasts by an average of 11% and 5% per year, respectively. 

Industry Update: Agro & Food Industry - MAY 30, 2025

<ul><li>With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).</li><li>We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.</li><li>Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. </li></ul>

With strong momentum in broiler and swine prices and declining raw material costs supporting sustained margin improvement, we expect earnings to grow YoY or remain stable or increase QoQ (except for GFPT, where profit may decline QoQ due to a one-off gain in 1Q25).We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and the region.Among them, we highlight TFG (Outperform; TP Bt5.85) as our top pick based on attractive valuation metrics. 

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

<ul><li>Asian bourses ended mixed, while the Thai stock market lacked fresh catalysts. With the 1Q25 earnings season concluded, investors are now awaiting the outcome of US-China trade negotiations.</li><li>As a result, the SET Index traded within a narrow range before closing slightly higher, supported by rebounds in DELTA, banking, and energy stocks.</li><li>However, the index still posted a 1.25% decline from the previous week.</li></ul>

Asian bourses ended mixed, while the Thai stock market lacked fresh catalysts. With the 1Q25 earnings season concluded, investors are now awaiting the outcome of US-China trade negotiations.As a result, the SET Index traded within a narrow range before closing slightly higher, supported by rebounds in DELTA, banking, and energy stocks.However, the index still posted a 1.25% decline from the previous week.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,205/1,194 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,225/1,231 points.</li><li>In the short term, the market is still awaiting clarity on the peak of Wave 1 (from the 5-wave upward pattern in Elliott Wave theory) before entering a correction phase, where Wave 2 typically retraces about 50-61.8% of Wave 1’s length.</li><li>We recommend a Sell into Rallies strategy for short-term investments, while for the 1-3 month horizon, a Selective Buy approach is advised once prices enter a major correction phase.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,205/1,194 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,225/1,231 points.In the short term, the market is still awaiting clarity on the peak of Wave 1 (from the 5-wave upward pattern in Elliott Wave theory) before entering a correction phase, where Wave 2 typically retraces about 50-61.8% of Wave 1’s length.We recommend a Sell into Rallies strategy for short-term investments, while for the 1-3 month horizon, a Selective Buy approach is advised once prices enter a major correction phase.

KTX Zoom: Earnings Results -  MAY 14, 2025

Thailand

GFPT Public Company Limited operates a fully integrated poultry business, encompassing feed mills, breeder and broiler farms, hatcheries, chicken evisceration, and processed food production. The company produces and distributes fresh, frozen, and cooked chicken products, as well as land and aquatic animal feed, for both domestic and international markets. GFPT was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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GFPT (GFPT TB)

Industry Update - Will the Meat Sector Benefit from US Tariffs?

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and highlight TFG as the most attractive pick based on the valuation metrics (Outperform; FV = Bt5.95).

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Agro & Food Industry - MAY 30, 2025

Outlook for 2Q25E: Profit for the meat sector is expected to improve QoQ and increase YoY, especially for companies with swine businesses in...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update Agro & Food Industry - May 21, 2025

We maintain a Neutral sector weighting and prefer swine-focused operators (BTG, CPF, and TFG), particularly those with operations in Thailand and...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - MAY 19, 2025

Asian bourses ended mixed, while the Thai stock market lacked fresh catalysts. With the 1Q25 earnings season concluded, investors are now awaiting...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: Earnings Results - MAY 14, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,205/1,194 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance...

Krungthai XSpring

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