Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> in the first quarter of the calendar year. </li>
<li>Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.</li>
<li>Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.</li>
</ul>


There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the calendar year. 
Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.
Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in MiniMax Group (100 HK) on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 182 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.9% as of May 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer staples, information technology and offset by communication services, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power, China Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 182 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.9% as of May 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer staples, information technology and offset by communication services, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power, China Telecom.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 15th): Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 180 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of May 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.2ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, energy, communication services and offset by financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, Eastroc, Montage Tech, China Life, Midea, Fuyao Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 180 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of May 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.2ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, energy, communication services and offset by financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, Eastroc, Montage Tech, China Life, Midea, Fuyao Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 8th): Datang Power, Eastroc, Montage Tech, China Life, Midea, Fuyao Glass

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 179 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of May 1st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by utilities, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, China Life, CATL, China Railway, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 179 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.1% as of May 1st.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by utilities, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, China Life, CATL, China Railway, CMB.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 1st): Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, China Life, CATL

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Almost a year in, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a> has yet to satisfy the precondition for its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> offer. The remaining precondition is CSRC and HKEx approvals.</li>
<li>CSRC approval should be forthcoming and is likely taking some time due to deal complexity and the imminent release of the 2025 results. </li>
<li>The appraised offer was based on an AH discount of 11%, which warrants caution. However, at the last close, the implied AH discount was 48%, suggesting a favourable risk/reward profile.</li>
</ul>


Almost a year in, ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has yet to satisfy the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is CSRC and HKEx approvals.
CSRC approval should be forthcoming and is likely taking some time due to deal complexity and the imminent release of the 2025 results. 
The appraised offer was based on an AH discount of 11%, which warrants caution. However, at the last close, the implied AH discount was 48%, suggesting a favourable risk/reward profile.


China

GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company specializing in advanced memory technologies, microcontrollers (MCUs), sensors, and analog products. Its offerings include SPI NOR Flash, SPI NAND Flash, Parallel NAND Flash, and MCUs based on ARM and RISC-V architectures. The company was founded in April 2005 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Announcement after market close tomorrow. There could be last-minute positioning next 2 weeks ahead of inclusion of the stocks in Stock Connect....

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (May 15th): Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (May 8th): Datang Power, Eastroc, Montage Tech, China Life, Midea, Fuyao Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Datang Power, Eastroc, Montage Tech, China Life, Midea,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (May 1st): Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, China Life, CATL

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, China Life, CATL,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ENN Energy (2688 HK): The Waiting Game

Today's update had no NEW news on the CSRC approval. The NEW news was that the ENN NG Board has proposed an AGM resolution (15 May) to extend the...

Arun George

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