IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a>'s underwhelming debut, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-hongjiu-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36023:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)</a> is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wcp-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36076:1" rel="noopener">WCP (WCP KS)</a> pushed back its US$692m IPO to mid-September. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, China Vast, Hwa Hong.         </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)'s underwhelming debut, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO, WCP (WCP KS) pushed back its US$692m IPO to mid-September. 
Event-Driven developments at Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Yancoal Australia (YAL AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), China Vast, Hwa Hong.         


Weekly Deals Digest (31 Jul) - Ramsay, Genex, MACA, Yancoal, Yashili, Thai Life, Hongjiu Fruit, WCP

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Glencore is looking to raise US$293m (A$422m) from selling its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>. This would be a clean up sale.</li>
<li>Glencore has been sitting on its stake for a while now, and the two have a JV in the Hunter Valley Operations, the latter which commenced in Jul 2017.</li>
<li>The deal, while a large one to process at 135.6 days of three month ADV, represents just 5.6% of Yancoal Australia’s current mcap.</li>
</ul>


Glencore is looking to raise US$293m (A$422m) from selling its stake in Yancoal Australia (YAL AU). This would be a clean up sale.
Glencore has been sitting on its stake for a while now, and the two have a JV in the Hunter Valley Operations, the latter which commenced in Jul 2017.
The deal, while a large one to process at 135.6 days of three month ADV, represents just 5.6% of Yancoal Australia’s current mcap.


Yancoal Australia Placement - Cleanup Sale by Glencore Now the Ball Is in Yankuang Court

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. </li>
<li>Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.</li>
<li>Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. 
Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.
Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.


Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0607/2022060700001.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejection</a> of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)</a></strong>'s proposal by <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a></strong> independent board was always on the cards.</li>
<li>Yet the bigger question remains - why was this unorthodox structure, involving the issuance of H-Share convertible bonds, tabled in the first place?</li>
<li>Back in Yankuang's court. Revise terms? Walk away? To note, Yancoal has not, to date, received any formal offer or proposal from Yankuang.</li>
</ul>


The rejection of Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)'s proposal by Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) independent board was always on the cards.
Yet the bigger question remains - why was this unorthodox structure, involving the issuance of H-Share convertible bonds, tabled in the first place?
Back in Yankuang's court. Revise terms? Walk away? To note, Yancoal has not, to date, received any formal offer or proposal from Yankuang.


Yancoal, Not Surprisingly, Rejects Yankuang's Proposal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> is likely to reject <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs of US$3.60 (HK$28.26/A$5.07) per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> share, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/glencore-reject-offer-yancoal-australia-stake-too-low-sources-2022-06-02/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Reuters</a>.</li>
<li>If the privatisation succeeds, we estimate that Yankuang’s additional claim on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a>’s three-year FCF would broadly cover the total potential consideration of US$1,794 million.</li>
<li>The fixed coupon on the CBs would likely need to match the foregone dividend yield. We think it challenging for Yankuang to bridge the gap to Glencore’s “right price”. </li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) is likely to reject Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs of US$3.60 (HK$28.26/A$5.07) per Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) share, according to Reuters.
If the privatisation succeeds, we estimate that Yankuang’s additional claim on Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)’s three-year FCF would broadly cover the total potential consideration of US$1,794 million.
The fixed coupon on the CBs would likely need to match the foregone dividend yield. We think it challenging for Yankuang to bridge the gap to Glencore’s “right price”. 


Glencore and Yankuang’s Disparate Valuations of Yancoal

Switzerland

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Jul) - Ramsay, Genex, MACA, Yancoal, Yashili, Thai Life, Hongjiu Fruit, WCP

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Alliance Aviation, Ramsay, Yancoal, Genex, MACA, China Vast, Xiamen Port, Yashili, Hwa...

Arun George

Yancoal Australia Placement - Cleanup Sale by Glencore Now the Ball Is in Yankuang Court

Glencore is looking to raise US$293m (A$422m) from selling its stake in Yancoal Australia (YAL AU). This would be a clean up sale.

Clarence Chu

Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Yancoal unsurprisingly batted away Yankuang's low-ball offer. The wording in Yankuang's response suggests that it is unlikely to offer improved...

Arun George

Yancoal, Not Surprisingly, Rejects Yankuang's Proposal

There is no firm Offer. It's not at all certain one will be pitched, and one that is considered representative - and less quirky. For now, a bet...

David Blennerhassett

Glencore and Yankuang’s Disparate Valuations of Yancoal

Glencore is likely to reject Yankuang’s offer, according to Reuters. While Glencore is said to be a willing seller, we think that Yankuang will...

Arun George

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