Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the 12M FV at Bt52.85.</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is attractive, while the 2024-26E EPS growth prospects are <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">stable (due to the gradual expiries of PPAs at some SPPs for </span>the electricity output sold to EGAT and IPP in 2025-26E).</li><li>At the same time, the tactical risk is neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating and the 12M FV at Bt52.85.Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is attractive, while the 2024-26E EPS growth prospects are stable (due to the gradual expiries of PPAs at some SPPs for the electricity output sold to EGAT and IPP in 2025-26E).At the same time, the tactical risk is neutral.

Global Power Synergy - 4Q23 Earnings in Line; 2024E Earnings to Remain Strong

<ul>
<li>GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of -Bt210mn.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, core profit was recorded at Bt487mn (-16% YoY, -53% QoQ) in the quarter, lower than our projection of Bt532mn by around 9%.</li>
<li>The weak 2Q23 core earnings QoQ can be blamed on the following.</li>
</ul>


GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of -Bt210mn.
Meanwhile, core profit was recorded at Bt487mn (-16% YoY, -53% QoQ) in the quarter, lower than our projection of Bt532mn by around 9%.
The weak 2Q23 core earnings QoQ can be blamed on the following.


Earnings Review - Global Power Synergy Plc. (GPSC)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>On the 5 July 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/major-cineplex-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16662:1" rel="noopener">Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)</a>'s board <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/050720211745440725E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the entering of a MOU with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-pattana-pcl-0b7fb113-16e1-4535-be8b-02dce5bbcd92" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17188:1" rel="noopener">Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB)</a> in relation to its shares in shopping mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-future-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4373:1" rel="noopener">Siam Future Development (SF TB)</a>, at a price of Bt12/share. An IFA was appointed to assess the sale and its opinion on the <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/060820211832280109E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19 July</a>, concluded the "<em>Transaction is reasonable with price and conditions that are fair</em>". A SPA was <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/250820211847500685E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into</a> on the 25 August with an expected completion on the 30 August. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>CPN <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=16302807319920&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">completed</a> the purchase of shares in Siam Future on 30 August 2021. After the completion of shares purchase, the number of shares held by CPN was 56.26%. In Thailand, the obligation to make a mandatory offer is triggered when an acquirer obtains shares of the target company of more than 25%, 50%, or 75% of the total voting rights of the target company.  Therefore, CPN was required to make a Tender Offer for the remaining shares in Siam Future, also at Bt12/share. A mandatory Tender Offer is always unconditional. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Tender Offer doc (247-4) for Siam Future was <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16311444618740&amp;sequence=2021100646" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> on the 9 September. The Offer period was for 25 business days - and closed on the 18 October. The payment date was the 20 October. The IFA reckoned the Offer was <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16326998697600&amp;sequence=2021104947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fair</a>. At the close of the Offer, CPN held <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16346869712030&amp;sequence=2021112797" target="_blank" rel="noopener">96.24%</a>. </p>
</div>
<p>There are no provisions regarding minority squeeze-out mechanisms under Thai law. However, if the board of directors approves a proposed de-listing,  an independent financial adviser provides its opinion to shareholders on the merits of the proposal, <em>and</em> the company gains approval (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against) from its shareholders to voluntarily delist, then a company can be delisted. The company is permitted to purchase shares tendered in accordance with SEC and Capital Market Supervisory Board rules. </p>
<p>On page 57 (of Siam Future's Tender Offer doc's <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16311444618740&amp;sequence=2021100646" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PDF</a>), it states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After the Tender Offer,<strong> the Offeror has an intention to delist the Business from being a listed company on the SET during the period of 12 months after the end of the Offer Period</strong>. Currently, the Offeror is under the possibility study of proceeding such transaction under relevant rules and regulations, including but not limited to, assessment of possibility of obtaining the approval from the shareholders meeting of the Business, of which has not reached a conclusion on delisting of the Business from being a listed company on the SET.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With 96.24% held, a Delisting Offer from CPN is likely imminent. Such an Offer at the prior Tender Offer price provides 20% upside to the current price. </p>


On the 5 July 2021, Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)'s board approved the entering of a MOU with Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB) in relation to its shares in shopping mall operator Siam Future Development (SF TB), at a price of Bt12/share. An IFA was appointed to assess the sale and its opinion on the 19 July, concluded the "Transaction is reasonable with price and conditions that are fair". A SPA was entered into on the 25 August with an expected completion on the 30 August. 


CPN completed the purchase of shares in Siam Future on 30 August 2021. After the completion of shares purchase, the number of shares held by CPN was 56.26%. In Thailand, the obligation to make a mandatory offer is triggered when an acquirer obtains shares of the target company of more than 25%, 50%, or 75% of the total voting rights of the target company.  Therefore, CPN was required to make a Tender Offer for the remaining shares in Siam Future, also at Bt12/share. A mandatory Tender Offer is always unconditional. 


The Tender Offer doc (247-4) for Siam Future was tabled on the 9 September. The Offer period was for 25 business days - and closed on the 18 October. The payment date was the 20 October. The IFA reckoned the Offer was fair. At the close of the Offer, CPN held 96.24%. 

There are no provisions regarding minority squeeze-out mechanisms under Thai law. However, if the board of directors approves a proposed de-listing,  an independent financial adviser provides its opinion to shareholders on the merits of the proposal, and the company gains approval (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against) from its shareholders to voluntarily delist, then a company can be delisted. The company is permitted to purchase shares tendered in accordance with SEC and Capital Market Supervisory Board rules. 
On page 57 (of Siam Future's Tender Offer doc's PDF), it states:

After the Tender Offer, the Offeror has an intention to delist the Business from being a listed company on the SET during the period of 12 months after the end of the Offer Period. Currently, the Offeror is under the possibility study of proceeding such transaction under relevant rules and regulations, including but not limited to, assessment of possibility of obtaining the approval from the shareholders meeting of the Business, of which has not reached a conclusion on delisting of the Business from being a listed company on the SET.

With 96.24% held, a Delisting Offer from CPN is likely imminent. Such an Offer at the prior Tender Offer price provides 20% upside to the current price. 

Buy Siam Future Development (SF TB). Then Buy Some More

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.</li><li>These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.</li><li>The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. 

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

<ul><li>We anticipate Case 3 for the potential electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and the Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for the period May to August 2024, which remains stable compared to the previous period, to be the most likely scenario.</li><li>This aligns with our full-year 2024E forecast and is subject to public hearings conducted by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).</li><li>Concurrently, the declining gas costs, despite the increase in gas volume at G1/61, are expected to facilitate better management of electricity tariff and gradually alleviate EGAT’s Ft subsidy burden, which currently stands at Bt100bn for the outstanding amount. </li></ul>

We anticipate Case 3 for the potential electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and the Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for the period May to August 2024, which remains stable compared to the previous period, to be the most likely scenario.This aligns with our full-year 2024E forecast and is subject to public hearings conducted by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).Concurrently, the declining gas costs, despite the increase in gas volume at G1/61, are expected to facilitate better management of electricity tariff and gradually alleviate EGAT’s Ft subsidy burden, which currently stands at Bt100bn for the outstanding amount. 

Industry Update – Energy (Power Sector)

Thailand

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Global Power Synergy - 4Q23 Earnings in Line; 2024E Earnings to Remain Strong

Our valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is attractive, while the 2024-26E EPS growth prospects are stable

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Review - Global Power Synergy Plc. (GPSC)

GPSC reported a 2Q23 NP of Bt309mn (-55% YoY, -72% QoQ), including an extra item relating to the coal stock adjustment at the Gheco-One project of ...

Krungthai XSpring

Buy Siam Future Development (SF TB). Then Buy Some More

Buy Siam Future. Then buy some more. I think you're looking at a minimum 10% upside from here - if using Big C Supercenter's delisting example -...

David Blennerhassett

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update – Energy (Power Sector)

We anticipate Case 3 for the potential electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and the Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for the period May to August 2024, which...

Krungthai XSpring