Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!</li>
<li>We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.


OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.</li>
<li>SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.


More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.</li><li>Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.</li><li>The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.</li></ul></div>

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>The last month and a half has featured a significant character change in all things clean energy whose timing came alongside the announcement of the US government’s largest fiscal spending package for renewable energy investment. </li><li>We are now potentially witnessing the first “follow through” effect of the Russia/Ukraine conflict which is that nations are waking up to the fact that energy security and infrastructure must be given a much higher priority and investment must be made to grow sources of supply in order to have stable and lasting economic growth. </li><li>This secular trend is still in its very early innings from an investment standpoint.</li></ul>

The last month and a half has featured a significant character change in all things clean energy whose timing came alongside the announcement of the US government’s largest fiscal spending package for renewable energy investment. We are now potentially witnessing the first “follow through” effect of the Russia/Ukraine conflict which is that nations are waking up to the fact that energy security and infrastructure must be given a much higher priority and investment must be made to grow sources of supply in order to have stable and lasting economic growth. This secular trend is still in its very early innings from an investment standpoint.

United States

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Solactive Global Lithium Index.

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT US)

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Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT US)

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

1st Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry...

Massif Capital Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/15

Solar names in particular continue to be on fire but may need some time to cool off and let the moving averages catch up.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

1st Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry...

Massif Capital Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/15

Solar names in particular continue to be on fire but may need some time to cool off and let the moving averages catch up.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....