Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.</li><li>On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.</li><li>The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.</li></ul>

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company's revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> respectively.</li>
<li>Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.</li>
<li>The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.</li>
</ul>


The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) respectively.
Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.
The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.


The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

<ul><li>GlobalFoundries' third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic initiatives.</li><li>The company reported revenue of $1.739 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 7% sequential growth, albeit a 6% decline year-over-year.</li><li>This revenue growth is commendable given the challenging industry conditions with lower factory utilization levels around mid-70s.</li></ul>

GlobalFoundries' third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic initiatives.The company reported revenue of $1.739 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 7% sequential growth, albeit a 6% decline year-over-year.This revenue growth is commendable given the challenging industry conditions with lower factory utilization levels around mid-70s.

GlobalFoundries Inc.: Automotive & Industrial IoT Integration As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Equity Bottom-Up

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent...

Baptista Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

GlobalFoundries Inc.: Automotive & Industrial IoT Integration As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

GlobalFoundries' third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic...

Baptista Research

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent...

Baptista Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

​US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

GlobalFoundries Inc.: Automotive & Industrial IoT Integration As A Critical Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

GlobalFoundries' third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic...

Baptista Research

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...