Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. The stock market reacted exciting for Tower raised 42% to reach $47.07 and Intel raised with ~1.8% respectively.</li>
<li>Tower Semiconductor is emphasized on analog semiconductor specialty foundries. Namely, it’s different from TSMC, UMC and GlobalFoundries, which are focusing on digital products original, and expand into analog afterward. </li>
<li>Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a completely different system.</li>
</ul>


Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. The stock market reacted exciting for Tower raised 42% to reach $47.07 and Intel raised with ~1.8% respectively.
Tower Semiconductor is emphasized on analog semiconductor specialty foundries. Namely, it’s different from TSMC, UMC and GlobalFoundries, which are focusing on digital products original, and expand into analog afterward. 
Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a completely different system.


Tower Semiconductor (TSME.US): To Be Merged by Intel- A Fastest Way, but a Patience Test, Too.

<ul>
<li>MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.</li>
<li>MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.</li>
<li>Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.</li>
</ul>


MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.
MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.
Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry</li>
<li>Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history</li>
<li>There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown</li>
</ul>


November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry
Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history
There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown


November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

<ul>
<li>2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.</li>
<li>Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.</li>
<li>The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.</li>
</ul>


2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.
Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.
The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.


2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.</p>

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

Tower Semiconductor (TSME.US): To Be Merged by Intel- A Fastest Way, but a Patience Test, Too.

Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation and know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

MediaTek will lead in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in...

Patrick Liao

November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

The semiconductor market once again set records in November, with 2021 revenues and unit shipments out-stripping all prior record years in its...

Jim Handy

2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Can today's semiconductor revenue growth continue, or will the market undergo another collapse? Objective Analysis calls for 6% growth, and shows...

Jim Handy

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins despite elevated valuations and...

Mio Kato

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