Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility</li>
<li>But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months</li>
<li>USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument</li>
</ul>


US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument


Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Why does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? </li>
<li>From <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  </li>
<li>Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  </li>
</ul>


Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  


Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   </li>
<li>Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   
Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.</li>
<li>We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.


Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.</li>
<li>3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 


UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

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Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

​USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

​Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

​TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

​2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...