Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.</li>
</ul>



UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.

Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.


UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.</li>
<li>The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. </li>
<li>UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. 
UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. 


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline</li>
<li>Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared</li>
<li>PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done</li>
<li>TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.</li>
<li>Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?</li>
</ul>


Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?


UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

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UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

​UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

​UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

​TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

​Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Potential merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries to counter SMIC's growth, TSMC's 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung on track for mid-2025 production,...