Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.</li>
<li>China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” </li>
<li>The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.</li>
</ul>


The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,</li>
<li>Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY</li>
<li>Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,
Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY
Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.


Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison</li>
<li>GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.</li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.</li>
</ul>


TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison
GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>In general, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)'</a> 3Q24 revenue, GM, OPM, and prepayment are hitting a recent low in 2024.</li>
<li>GlobalWafers stated that the semiconductor industry is generally recovering for AI, but we do not think that AI can represent the entire semiconductor industry.  </li>
<li>Demand for advanced sub-3nm nodes and AI technologies is expected to increase, which will drive fab utilization.</li>
</ul>


In general, Globalwafers (6488 TT)' 3Q24 revenue, GM, OPM, and prepayment are hitting a recent low in 2024.
GlobalWafers stated that the semiconductor industry is generally recovering for AI, but we do not think that AI can represent the entire semiconductor industry.  
Demand for advanced sub-3nm nodes and AI technologies is expected to increase, which will drive fab utilization.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.

<ul>
<li>Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier</li>
<li>Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. </li>
<li>For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. </li>
</ul>


Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. 
For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. 


Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Taiwan

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

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Globalwafers (6488 TT)

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

Q324 silicon wafer area shipments in 3,214 MSI , +5.9% QoQ & +6.8% YoY. Top 4 revenues $2.5 billion, +0.5% QoQ & + 6.5% YoY. Top 4 EBIT $337...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

TSMC sees strong revenue growth in October, while GlobalWafers delays recovery expectations and UMC faces challenges with potential sales...

Vincent Fernando, CFA